Analysis with Big Data
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A model, based on Camacho and Domenech (2012) and Aruoba and Diebold (2010), which are extensions of Stock and Watson (1991), was built to forecast Colombia's GDP in real time. Going forward, BBVA Research will continue to publish updates of the monthly results of this work.
Total consumption rebounded after the drop at the end of May, although YoY growth is still negative. The level of spending so far in June is below that of the same period in 2020. Our indicators forecast a weak second quarter due to mobility restrictions.
Consumption improves its dynamics so far in June and is 13.2% above that recorded in the same period in 2019. Services show an important rebound and are once again above their pre-pandemic level, while consumption of goods slows down.
The Basque economy may have shrunk by 10.5% in 2020, and may grow 5.5% in 2021 and 7.5% in 2022. Public policies and the lower weight of social consumption softened the impact of COVID-19. Consumption, investment and exports will push the economy. With risks, European funds shall boost growth especially through 2022.
The consumption growth rates in May were lower across all countries except Mexico due to the Covid-19 impact starting to improve in May 2020.
The end of the state of alarm prompted the recovery of spending with BBVA credit and debit cards or at BBVA POS terminals in May, which were 19% higher than those made in the same period of 2019 (13% in April).
Consumption in May grew 7.1% compared to 2019 driven by goods which stood at 25.4% while services at -19%. Consumption rebounded in the last days of May, with greater strength in the services group that recovered the level of February-March of this year but did not offset the sharp declines at the beginning of the month.
The tightening of sanitary measures at the end of May decreased consumption to April 2020 levels, affecting categories related to mobility and "non-essential" activities. A significant improvement in the level of Argentina's spending on the path towards the new normality is not yet visible.