Publications

We examine the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the macroeconomy at high frequency. To do this, we build daily consumption and investment aggregates using bank transaction records and leverage administrative data for measures of daily gross output and employment for Spain.

The sensitivity remains on growth and employment outlook, potentially generating a policy mix where monetary stance staying relatively tighter compared to our early March baseline scenario and fiscal policy not being able to be tightened as targeted in the Medium Term Program (MTP).

Economic activity is deteriorating due to heightened uncertainty; tariffs are affecting an economy already weakened by judicial reform and fiscal consolidation. We forecast GDP to contract by (-)0.4% in 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026 (1.2%).

Ukraine Launches deep-strike drone attacks on Russian strategic assets. Deadly incident in Gaza. Dutch Prime Minister resigns

India & Pakistan ceasefire holds but tension remains. Chinese exporters cautiously optimistic. Khamenei has dismissed US demands to halt uranium enrichment

This report presents a novel method to track technological progress in real time using data from ArXiv, the world's most popular preprint repository in computer science, physics and mathematics.

Hard data confirms a robust quarterly GDP growth in 1Q25, similar to the previous quarter (1.7% q/q in 4Q24), driven primarily by domestic demand. Leading indicators signal a broad-based weakening in activity for 2Q25. We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% with risks becoming tilted to downside.

India and Pakistan ceasefire holds but tension remains. Chinese exporters cautiously optimistic. Trump lifts Syria sanctions.