Publications

With the start of the easing from the CBRT since mid-June, banks’ interest margins improve; while credit growth trend stays closer to inflation. Cumulative RoE of deposit banks remained almost the same at 24% as of June, compared to 2024 end.

In June, real growth in outstanding loans to non-financial private sector slowed to 5.4% annually, its lowest level since April 2024, as the surge in demand ahead of US tariffs faded. Deposits registered a slower overall growth (3.6% in real annual terms), influenced by the weakness of the economy's revenue sources.

We present a summary and analysis of the most relevant developments and publications in Mexico's financial regulatory landscape.

Since recovering in 2014, the flow of remittances to Mexico has experienced a streak of 11 consecutive years of growth, which will most likely end in 2025. Between 2013 and 2024, remittances increased in nominal terms from $23 billion to $64.7 billion; that is, they almost tripled.

In May, bank deposits and commercial bank lending to the Non-Financial Private Sector (SPNF) registered a widespread slowdown, influenced by weak economic activity and the fading exchange rate effect. Credit grew at a real annual rate of 7.4%, while deposits slowed to a real annual rate of 4.4%.

As a result of the ongoing tight monetary stance, credit growth trend turned into a deceleration from a moderate path. Higher level of real interest rates result in more restrictive financial conditions. Expected rate cuts in coming months and potential ease in regulatory growth caps might reverse this outlook a little bit.

We identify the main drivers of key financial market asset price dynamics, including the Euro-dollar exchange rate and the Bund-US Treasury yield spread, using a sign-restricted SVAR model. The model also facilitates the extraction of a high frequency global macro-financial conditions indicator.

In April 2025, the fade out of the exchange rate depreciation influenced the lower dynamism of the balance of the current credit portfolio granted by commercial banks to the SPNF (8.2% YoY in real terms) and the balance of traditional bank deposits (6.1% YoY in real terms).