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May 16, 2025
A key indication that Banxico's primary concern has shifted from inflation to growth is its acknowledgment, for the first time, that “since the inflationary episode has been left behind,” the fight against inflation is at a new stage.
May 13, 2025
In contrast to the Fed, who held rates unchanged last week, Banxico has room to continue cutting rates. A low exchange rate pass-through and deeper domestic capital markets grant Banxico greater policy independence from the Fed than in the past.
May 9, 2025
At its May meeting, the Board of the Central Bank lowered the reference interest rate to 4.50%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the ex-ante real reference rate, thus stands close to the level estimated to be neutral.
May 8, 2025
Recent softness in sentiment is not enough to shift policy as solid demand and stable jobs data support a continued pause. Attention now turns to assess whether this cautious pause could extend deeper into the second half of the year.
May 5, 2025
Amid mixed economic data and the delayed effects of recently imposed tariffs, we expect the Fed to keep the policy rate unchanged this week at its 4.25-4.50% target range; it will likely signal it has room to maintain its policy stance heading into the June meeting.
April 30, 2025
The Board of Banrep reduced the monetary policy rate by 25bp to 9.25% in April. This decision was unanimous. On this occasion, they highlighted that inflation and inflation expectations derived from the debt markets declined.
April 28, 2025
The dollar's recent fall has reignited the debate about the possible end of its hegemony in the global financial architecture. A question that has once again fed an old European desire: for the euro to consolidate its position as a reserve currency and safe haven.
April 24, 2025
While Trump recently suggested he would not try to remove Powell from his position following last week’s intensified criticism, such threats to institutions underpinning the dollar’s global dominance pose a serious risk to the future of the global financial system.
April 11, 2025
In its April meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to keep the policy rate at 4.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains slightly above neutral.
April 4, 2025
The Banco de la República kept its interest rate unchanged in March, in a context of mixed variables surrounding the decision. In the end, the Bank prioritized economic stability, offering a significant demonstration of independence and technical expertise.
March 31, 2025
The Board of the Banco de la República kept the policy rate unchanged at 9.5% in a split decision (4 to 3). The decision was based on inflationary and fiscal risks, as well as external uncertainty.
March 28, 2025
Its confidence in delivering a third big rate cut to keep removing the still very restrictive monetary policy stance as fast as possible will be contingent upon the peso’s orderly trading conditions and the absence of a marked depreciation.
