May 17, 2019
Central Banks latest publications
The dynamics of Global Investment Funds flows in 1Q19 can be characterized by a widening bond-equity divergence, and a visible moderation in inflows to EMs. Looking ahead, we expect EM outflows to continue at a moderate pace until global volatility eases. In a risk scenario, EMs to face more intense and persistent outflows.
May 16, 2019
As widely expected, Banxico left the monetary policy rate unchanged at 8.25%. The decision was unanimous, as we anticipated. The wording and tone of the statement remained hawkish and was little changed from the previous one (March 28). As we anticipated, the hawkish tone continues to signal a cautious approach.
April 29, 2019
Last March, in its monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to delay the expected interest rate rise, having announced that reference rates will remain at current levels at least through the end of this year – instead of until summer 2019 — as had been previously announced.
We estimated a Taylor rule for the Central Bank and found that the estimated rate has not diverted from the average observed rate more than one month. We expected that the BCRP would soon begin to raise the rate to a more neutral level. However, there are concerns about global growth which could lead to the current monetary…
April 10, 2019
According to the minutes, members expect the pace of economic expansion to moderate in 2019, mainly due to weaker global growth and a smaller impact from fiscal stimulus.
April 10, 2019
April was a transition meeting for the ECB, with no changes in the forward guidance and little information on hot issues (liquidity measures and tiered-deposit rates). Still, Draghi sounded dovish on the macroeconomic outlook and his reiteration that they are ready to act with all available instruments. We expect details on…
April 1, 2019
the Fed's two major challenges in the short term are to avoid market pessimism turning into self-fulfilling expectations and to adjust its monetary policy strategy, with the aim of strengthening its credibility with regard to target inflation.