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    July 2, 2020

    Mexico | Central Banks help, but they are not the solution

    The world is experiencing the deepest recession in the last hundred years. The IMF estimates that the global economy will contract 4.9% in 2020. Many countries will have contractions in the second quarter of this year of between 30% and 40% at annualized rates.

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    June 25, 2020

    Banxico surprisingly and adequately strikes a dovish tone

    Banxico cut the policy rate by 50 bp to 5.0% and surprisingly made significant dovish tweaks to the wording of the statement.

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    June 23, 2020

    Mexico | Easing cycle will continue, but Banxico will remain cautious

    Yet, we continue to expect Banxico to cut the policy rate until it reaches c. 0% real levels by year-end ie, 3.0% to 3.5%. The Board’s concerns on the ER should have eased in the intermeeting period.

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    June 22, 2020

    Europe | Massive Demand for Liquidity to Lend to Companies

    Last Thursday, we learned that eurozone banks requested a large amount of liquidity (EUR 1.3 trillion) from the ECB's fourth TLTRO III operation.

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    June 19, 2020

    U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse. June 2020

    Baseline assumes real GDP declines by 4.4% in 2020. Peak unemployment reached, but risks to the labor market remain. Disinflationary headwinds abate, but inflation to remain low in 2020. Fed to keep rates at the Zero Lower Bound, balance sheet growth to continue.
    • Geography Tags
    • USA

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    June 12, 2020

    Peru | Central Bank maintains the monetary policy rate at 0,25%

    The Board of the Central Bank decided to maintain the monetary policy rate at 0,25% in June. The Bank renewed its commitment to maintain a strongly expansive stance for a prolonged period and showed greater concern for inflation, estimating it will fall below the target range this year.
    • Geography Tags
    • Peru

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    June 10, 2020

    FOMC Meeting June 9-10: No end in sight for accommodative stance

    The June 9-10 FOMC meeting statement provided a very dovish perspective on the economy. It reinforced the severe damage from Covid-19 to both economic activity and the labor market.
    • Geography Tags
    • USA

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    June 9, 2020

    Europe | The ECB doubles down

    Three months after approving a Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) for an initial EUR 750 billion in response to the COVID-19 crisis, at its most recent meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) agreed to expand the program by a further EUR 600 billion.

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