Central Banks latest publications
The world is experiencing the deepest recession in the last hundred years. The IMF estimates that the global economy will contract 4.9% in 2020. Many countries will have contractions in the second quarter of this year of between 30% and 40% at annualized rates.
Banxico cut the policy rate by 50 bp to 5.0% and surprisingly made significant dovish tweaks to the wording of the statement.
Yet, we continue to expect Banxico to cut the policy rate until it reaches c. 0% real levels by year-end ie, 3.0% to 3.5%. The Board’s concerns on the ER should have eased in the intermeeting period.
Last Thursday, we learned that eurozone banks requested a large amount of liquidity (EUR 1.3 trillion) from the ECB's fourth TLTRO III operation.
Baseline assumes real GDP declines by 4.4% in 2020. Peak unemployment reached, but risks to the labor market remain. Disinflationary headwinds abate, but inflation to remain low in 2020. Fed to keep rates at the Zero Lower Bound, balance sheet growth to continue.
The Board of the Central Bank decided to maintain the monetary policy rate at 0,25% in June. The Bank renewed its commitment to maintain a strongly expansive stance for a prolonged period and showed greater concern for inflation, estimating it will fall below the target range this year.
The June 9-10 FOMC meeting statement provided a very dovish perspective on the economy. It reinforced the severe damage from Covid-19 to both economic activity and the labor market.
Three months after approving a Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) for an initial EUR 750 billion in response to the COVID-19 crisis, at its most recent meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) agreed to expand the program by a further EUR 600 billion.