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Policy rate expectations and Treasury yields eased from their late-April’s highs on softer employment and inflation data released recently.

We present a summary and analysis of the most relevant developments and publications in Mexico's financial regulatory landscape.

While members continued to state that “the disinflation process is expected to continue,” the stickiness of core services inflation drove Banxico to revise up its inflation forecasts after considering that “inflationary shocks are foreseen to t…

Without major surprise, in May the Central Bank cut once again its policy rate by 25bp, bringing it to 5,75%. We estimate that from now on the monetary normalisation process will unfold more gradually, closely following the behaviour of core in…

The favorable core inflation trend gives Banxico room to continue lowering the policy rate, which will remain tight during 2024-25 despite a gradual rate cut cycle, but we now expect Banxico to pause the rate cut cycle this week and take rates …

In a context of a strong economy and a lack of further progress on inflation in recent months, the Fed unequivocally signaled that it can be patient and will give the restrictive monetary policy stance more time to do its job before deciding to cut rates.

Banrep Board maintains March's pace of cuts, with a 50bp reduction in April, accumulating a total of 150bp since it started its downward rate cycle in December 2023. The decision was split, with 5 members in favor of the 50bp reduction, one member in favor of a 75bp reduction and one in favor of a 100bp reduction.

Financial markets’ expectations on the future path of monetary policy have shifted significantly. While it will evidently take longer than expected to gain confidence on the path to 2%, the Fed is unlikely to rule out rate cuts this year.

A third-in-a-row 0.4% MoM core CPI inflation reading for March following strong jobs reports added to a series of hot data that suggest a rate cut soon is off the table amid increased odds for less than three rate cuts this year.

The United States has achieved something that seemed impossible a year ago: significantly lower inflation (from over 9% in the summer of 2022 to 3.5%) without triggering a rise in unemployment, currently at 3.8%.

Banco de la República has reduced its policy rate by one percentage point since November 2023. This brings the rate to 12.25%, still a high level, especially considering that March inflation stood at 7.4% and the most recent activity figures point to a stagnant economy.

In its April decision, the Board of the Central Bank decided to cut the reference rate by 25 basis points to 6.00%. However, the monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains in restrictive territory.