Central Banks

Today’s 9-3 voting split at the Fed suggests that support for monetary policy tightening has continued to grow within the Committee. The next policy decision will largely depend on whether upcoming inflation data validate the recent improvement in inflation.

The Fed is set to keep the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75% this week. Chair Warsh will likely reinforce the FOMC’s hawkish lean by pointing to the AI investment boom as a potential source of demand-driven inflation.

The renewed escalation in Iran has pushed Treasury yields back to early-2025 levels, as markets again weigh the impact of higher oil prices on both the inflation and the economic growth outlook.

The ECB kept the deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% following a unanimous decision. Lagarde adopted a hawkish tone, stressing that the energy shock has yet to fully feed through the economy. With more data available by September, the next move will depend on whether energy and geopolitical pressures persist over the summer.

BCRP kept its policy rate at 4.25% for a tenth straight month, in line with expectations. Headline (4.0%) and core (4.5%) inflation remain above target, and the statement points to somewhat slower convergence. We do not rule out a policy rate adjustment in the coming months.

This Working Paper provides the first analysis of credit relationships between financial institutions and firms through the lens of hypergraphs. We applied empirically this approach to Credit Registry data from the Central Bank of Argentina, covering the period from Aug. 2023 to Dec. 2025 and focusing on commercial loans.

Colombia's economy will grow 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 driven by private consumption, amid global geopolitical tensions and cautious monetary policy. Activity faces challenges from weak investment, persistent inflation, and fiscal sustainability pressures.