Publications

Climate change is not neutral for potential GDP: unmanaged warming acts as a negative supply shock, while early, credible mitigation and adaptation can offset damages and may generate long-run gains, albeit with high uncertainty and strong scenario dependence.

In 2026, climate change will largely remain the same: its impacts will keep growing, as will the policies aimed at reducing them, although with diminishing momentum. We will need to keep a close eye on global climate governance, on securing more funding for adaptation, and on whether clean innovation delivers any surprises.

The Kaya identity is an analytical tool that helps to understand the behavior of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions through four factors: population, GDP per capita, the energy intensity of the economy, and the emissions intensity of energy.

COP30 leaves mixed feelings. The good news is that, even in a climate of global geopolitical fragmentation, there remains a forum where, despite the notable absence of the United States and its contrarian stance, decisions continue to be reached through global consensus.

Revenues from the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are a fiscal resource available for climate action and the energy transition. By allocating 25% of the expected 2030 revenues to cleantech (€1.1–2.4 billion) and attracting private investment, Spain would strengthen its industrial capacity and competitiveness.

In a context marked by the absence of the U.S. and geopolitical divisions, COP30 seeks to move from ambition to measurable action, with concrete progress on national climate goals, financing, forest conservation, climate adaptation, and international carbon markets.

This presentation analyzes forecasts and recent developments related to the global economy, as well as other issues such as geopolitics, the US dollar and the new global financial architecture, defense in Europe, and GenAI, employment, and productivity.