Publications

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported 0.5% MoM growth in November, with lower spending on goods and services. Goods spending increased 0.4% MoM, extending the sluggish momentum observed since September, while services grew 1.0% MoM, decelerating after the strong rebound recorded in the previous month.

The Black Friday campaign has generated significant momentum in BBVA Research's Big Data consumption indicator, which grew by 12.3% during the last week of November compared to the average for the last weeks of previous months.

The latest data from the National Accounts of the INE provide an image that, at first glance, could revive old ghosts of the Spanish economy. Following a post-pandemic recovery supported by the foreign sector's contributions, the dynamics have shifted.

The Big Data Private Consumption Index grew by 16.7% YoY in November, showing a strong acceleration compared to previous months (7.7% in October, 10.5% in September).

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a 1.8% MoM increase in October, boosted by a strong performance in the services segment (+5.9% MoM).

Private consumption is set to grow by 3.3% in 2025, two-tenths higher than in 2024, and by 2.5% in 2026, driven by expected increases in household disposable income and wealth. Durable goods and services will continue to lead the expansion in spending.

Consumer prices rose by 2.55% m/m, lower than both consensus (Bloomberg, 2.7%) and our expectation (2.85%), leading to its annual inflation to retreat to 32.9%. We now expect 2025 year-end inflation to be 32.5%, raising upside risks on our 2026 year-end forecast of 23% as well.