Consumption latest publications
New vehicle sales were 16.9 million in 2019, 1.7% less than in 2018. Although still solid, 2019 sales were the lowest since 2014. We expect new car sales to slow down further in 2020, due to slower economic growth and less affordable vehicles.
The world became more complex for all in economic terms because of the increase in trade tensions between the great powers. Uncertainties that negatively affected the financial markets generating great volatilities in the stock markets, as well as in the debt and currency markets at a global level.
We estimate that retail sales' growth rate in 2020 will be similar to that of this year. Looking forward, factors such as the demographic boon, higher household purchasing power and the continued growth of online shopping, suggest that retail sales have space to continue growing.
Eurozone growth stabilized in 3Q19 thanks to the resilience of domestic demand, while the deterioration of industrial production and exports has halted. Our MICA-BBVA model projects still low growth in 4Q19. Core inflation has stepped in November, but it is early to tell if it will be sustainable.
The global slowdown extends into 4Q19, as some incoming figures continue to be weak despite a better tone on trade negotiations and lower brexit risks. Services and domestic demand continue to sustain growth while manufacturing and trade have stabilized in Q3, but confidence data for Q4 have been mixed so far.
Solid but stable new vehicle sales through 3Q19. A robust supply of “off-leasing” units and access to credit support sales of used vehicles. Consumer credit remains healthy, although delinquencies keep growing.
More evident negative effects of worsening global demand and uncertainty on exports and investment explain the downward revision of growth in 2020. Further monetary easing and slightly expansive fiscal policy could help to halt deteriorating confidence and to underpin spending, with increasing divergence across countries.
The trends of Colombian consumers in the last 10 years have been changing. The structure, income, purchasing power and consumption habits have been fundamental when profiling a new Colombian consumer.