Consumption latest publications
Total consumption rebounded after the drop at the end of May, although YoY growth is still negative. The level of spending so far in June is below that of the same period in 2020. Our indicators forecast a weak second quarter due to mobility restrictions.
Output grew 58.5% YoY in April, lower than expected by the market consensus (60%). This result hides a low year-on-year comparison base due isolation measures were in force in April 2020.
Consumption improves its dynamics so far in June and is 13.2% above that recorded in the same period in 2019. Services show an important rebound and are once again above their pre-pandemic level, while consumption of goods slows down.
The recovery in private consumption will gain momentum as vaccination progresses, the EU recovery package (NGEU) starts to boost demand and households consolidate the absorption of excess savings. Consumer spending will grow by 6.1% in 2021 and 6.8% in 2022.
Consumption in May grew 7.1% compared to 2019 driven by goods which stood at 25.4% while services at -19%. Consumption rebounded in the last days of May, with greater strength in the services group that recovered the level of February-March of this year but did not offset the sharp declines at the beginning of the month.
The tightening of sanitary measures at the end of May decreased consumption to April 2020 levels, affecting categories related to mobility and "non-essential" activities. A significant improvement in the level of Argentina's spending on the path towards the new normality is not yet visible.
Spain was the Eurozone country that recorded the largest rebound in the household saving rate in the first half of last year. Health restrictions and the fear of contagion were the main factors behind the increase in family savings.
Consumption in May was 2.2% higher than before the pandemic. The slowdown observed at the beginning of the month has been compensated by a better dynamic in the last few days. Goods are 22% above their pre-pandemic level, while services are 25% below this level.