Consumption latest publications
Recessions occur because the Fed's short-term interest rates determine the level of all rates in the economy: the Fed's rate hike implies higher rates for credit to companies, for mortgage loans and for consumer loans, etc.
In May, total consumption with BBVA cards, in real terms, grew 10.2% YoY. The latest data from our real time indicators show a weakness in the economic recovery process.
After growing 3.8% year-on-year in March, economic activity advanced 3.7% in April, despite the strict confinement that took place in the city of Lima. The expansion of the non-primary component stood out (5.1%). On the other hand, the primary component of GDP, more linked to extractive activities, contracted by 1.3%.
The automobile sector offers a useful overview of many of the general trends that we are seeing in the economy. First of all, it provides a good example of the impact that society's changing preferences are having and, secondly, it demonstrates how supply-side constraints are limiting growth.
In May, household consumption slowed compared to April, especially in the second half of the month. Tourism-related spending was the most moderate, while in-city consumption (restaurants, entertainment and urban transportation) remained strong.
In May, BBVA Research's big data consumption index (inflation-adjusted spending with cards and cash withdrawals) increased 8,0% compared to the same month in the previous year (19.0% YoY in April).
The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator (ICBD BBVA Research) slows down amid the fall in the tourism sector after the high dynamism registered in April triggered by the Easter holiday period.
The Consumer Price Index for the city of Lima increased 0.38% MoM in May. This is a result of the increase in the prices of transportation and food and non-alcoholic beverages, in a context of higher international prices of fuels and foodstuffs.