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The scenario for the Spanish economy points to the continuation of the pattern observed in recent quarters: The expansion will be sustained as long as the capacity to create employment increases and the productivity of capital continues to grow.

Between 2025 and 2027, GDP will be driven by domestic demand: resilient household consumption, supportive public spending and investment boosted by a healthier construction sector. Persistently high inflation, cautious monetary policy and a wide fiscal deficit weigh on the outlook.

The national unemployment rate stood at 8.2% in October 2025, the lowest level for an October since 2015. In seasonally adjusted terms, the rate was 8.9%, remaining low and relatively stable since March. Employment growth accelerated to 4.2%.

Labor poverty measures, in the short term, the relationship between household labor income and the cost of the food basket, that is, their purchasing power. An increase in labor income would improve a household’s economic situation, while an increase in the cost of the food basket would worsen it.

In 2025, Navarre's GDP could grow by 2.4%, and this growth is expected to continue in 2026. Looking ahead, economic activity will be marked by high uncertainty surrounding economic and trade policy and the slow recovery in Europe.

Spain is growing faster than the EU (around 3% in 2025) and has the lowest unemployment rate since 2008 (10.5%), but productivity growth is disappointing and still lags behind the EU. More investment (in physical, technological, and human capital) is needed for more productive, innovative, and sustainable growth.

The observatory analyzes the behavior of GDP and productivity per full-time equivalent employee in Spain up to the second quarter of 2025. The Spanish economy completed its post-pandemic recovery in that quarter, with GDP per working-age person standing 0.3 percentage points above its trend.