Published on Thursday, September 24, 2026

Colombia Economic Outlook. September 2026

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Colombia’s economy will grow 2.6% in 2026, ease to 2.3% in 2027, and rebound to 3.1% in 2028. The 2027 slowdown will be temporary as growth shifts from public to private-sector support, which will strengthen in 2028. Fiscal imbalances and inflation remain the key challenges ahead.

Key points

Key points:
Private investment will be the main driver of economic growth in the coming years, enabling a shift away from consumption-related drivers—largely linked to the public sector—toward productive activities. Construction will initially play a key role in this transition, followed by agribusiness at a later stage.
Year-end inflation is projected at 7.0% in 2026, 5.4% in 2027, and 4.1% in 2028. Near-term pressures will stem from El Niño and strong domestic demand, before inflation gradually eases as supply shocks fade and the growth mix shifts toward a better balance between production and demand.
Against a backdrop of persistent inflation and still-robust domestic spending, Banco de la República will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance, keeping the policy rate at 12.00% throughout 2026 and for most of 2027. An easing cycle is expected to begin toward the end of 2027, bringing the policy rate to 11.25% by year-end and 8.25% by end-2028.
The Central Government’s fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 7.4% of GDP in 2026 and 8.1% in 2027, marking a substantial deterioration and the economy’s main macroeconomic challenge. The Government has set out a fiscal adjustment plan that BBVA Research estimates will narrow the deficit to 7.1% of GDP in 2028.
The current account deficit is expected to widen from 2.4% of GDP in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027, before stabilizing at around 3.5% thereafter. This deterioration will reflect stronger imports and weak export performance, with exports unlikely to gain significant momentum before 2028. Against this backdrop, and amid a narrowing interest rate differential with the United States, the Colombian peso is expected to depreciate gradually from the second half of 2027 onward.