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May 23, 2025
This edition of the OTMT examines labor market trends based on data available through Q1 2025. It reviews the main aggregate indicators and analyzes recent labor market flows, with a focus on closing gender gaps.
May 21, 2025
In 2024, the Region of Murcia's GDP could have grown by 3.6%, and is expected to increase by 2.9% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The dynamism of the public sector, tourism and consumer spending, and the recovery of agricultural exports explain this year's strength, while domestic demand is gaining ground.
May 21, 2025
Spain has staged one of the most dynamic macroeconomic recoveries in Europe after the pandemic. Employment and GDP have far exceeded the levels observed in 2019. However, the mood of households does not seem to have followed the same path.
May 19, 2025
The observatory analyzes the cyclical behavior of GDP and exports in Spain up to the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a negative gap in GDP per working age population (WAP) compared to its trend level (-0.9 pp), although its growth slightly exceeds the historical trend.
May 19, 2025
The images of the floods that hit Valencia last October are still fresh in the collective memory. BBVA Research has developed an analytical framework to make the most of the available information and quantitatively assess both the impact and recovery after a climate disaster.
May 12, 2025
The slowdown in formal employment in Mexico deepened in April, driven primarily by declining investment and growing business distrust. The contraction in key economic sectors and economic uncertainty point to weak job creation throughout the year.
May 12, 2025
In 2024, The GPD of the Canary Islands could have grown by 3.7%, and is expected to increase by 3.4% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. This strength is due to the robust performance of the services sector, particularly in tourism, as well as the domestic demand, where consumer spending has been increasing its weight.
May 12, 2025
Spain has led EU growth since the start of the war in Ukraine. However, weak growth in Europe, persistent geopolitical tensions, and erratic U.S. trade policy overshadow the outlook.
May 9, 2025
National employment grows, mainly driven by non-wage employment (+8% annually in March). Of 1.1M jobs created, most are independent and informal, raising the informality rate to 57.2%. The challenge is to formalize this employment to improve conditions and reduce poverty.
May 9, 2025
This note proposes a framework to estimate the employment effects of floods in Spain, combining imputed damage data with a spatial panel model. These extreme events cause job losses and regional spillovers, but timely aid mitigates them. The DANA in Valencia illustrates the frameworks' accuracy and its policy relevance.
May 8, 2025
Despite rising uncertainty and early signs of cooling, the U.S. labor market remains broadly balanced, driven by services, stable participation, and moderated wage growth. However, risks from policy shifts and slower job openings are building.
May 2, 2025
The national unemployment rate for March 2025 was 9.6% and the seasonally adjusted rate was 9.1% marking the third consecutive monthly decrease and placing it more than one percentage point below its 2024 average. This positive performance in the unemployment rate is mainly attributed to the strong dynamics of employment.
