Employment

The Spanish economy will grow by 2.6% in 2026, led by Madrid, the south-center, and the Valencian Community. In 2027, growth will moderate to 2.1%, with a recovery of the northern industrial regions and a slowdown in the Mediterranean and the islands.

Formal employment in Mexico shows a gradual recovery. IMSS data indicate that job creation in September surpassed the previous year, although the pace remains moderate and uneven across sectors. Improved private and public investment is key to strengthening future labor market outlooks.

The Spanish economy will maintain solid growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, supported by employment, consumption and services. Higher energy costs, inflation and interest rates will weigh on activity, while structural challenges to growth persist.

The minimum wage debate in Peru presents two views: the competitive one, warning of unemployment and informality risks, and the non-competitive market perspective. Given Peru's low productivity and high informality, excessive hikes could harm the most vulnerable workers in the labor market.

Colombia's labor participation dropped from 68% to 64% in the last decade, driven by youth. This stems from two factors: more time spent studying (higher tertiary enrollment) and a smaller population share due to demographic aging. Higher inactivity due to studies boosts future human capital.

Social Security affiliation increased by 92,300 people and unemployment by 23,600. Adjusted for seasonality, an increase of 103,000 contributors and 9,000 unemployed people is estimated. In 3Q26, employment and unemployment increased by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter CVEC due to the extraordinary regularization of immigrants.

We have revised our 2026 growth forecast upward to 1.4% (from 1.2% before); we anticipate that the gradual recovery of domestic demand will sustain the pace of expansion. Following a weak 2025, formal employment is beginning to improve. We expect core inflation to resume its downward trend in the second quarter of the year.