Energy and Commodities

Pemex's liquid hydrocarbon production averaged 1.658 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, a slight increase of 6.2 thousand barrels per day from the previous quarter. Despite five consecutive quarters of increases, the figure remains far from the target of 1.8 million barrels per day.

Consumer price inflation came in at 1.78% m/m, slightly below our expectation (1.85% m/m) and the consensus (1.9% m/m), bringing annual inflation down to 31.8%. We continue to maintain our 30% year-end inflation forecast, considering volatile energy prices and still-elevated, unanchored inflation expectations.

Grid congestion may delay housing construction and constrain new residential developments in high-demand areas. Accelerating investment in electricity networks, improving coordination between urban planning and grid planning, and optimizing the allocation of network capacity will be key to supporting residential growth.

Housing demand will remain strong despite the decline in home sales in 2026 (-7.3%), but housing supply will remain insufficient, continuing to put upward pressure on prices. Grid congestion and growing competition for electricity access are already delaying new residential and economic developments.

Despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the global economy is holding up better than expected, thanks to energy relief measures and the momentum from artificial intelligence. The outlook depends on trade reopening to prevent a rebound in prices.

On May 28, three months will have passed since the outbreak of the latest conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The crisis has brought renewed attention to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that serves as the sole maritime gateway between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.

The EU-Mercosur agreement presents a favorable scenario for growth, investment, and trade. Spain maintains a strategic link that sits above the European average, driven by business investment and the supply of key inputs.