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GDP grew 2.8% YoY in February. This result was influenced by the additional day of activity due to the fact that 2024 is a leap year and the low YoY comparison base. The growth of the mining sector and some sectors of non-primary GDP stood out.

In February 2024, the balance of traditional bank deposits (sight + term) registered a real annual growth rate of 5.8%, while the balance of the current credit portfolio granted by commercial banks to the non-financial private sector (NFPS) recorded a real annual growth of 5.1%.

The indebtedness of different agents remains below that of peers. The composition of external debt has been shifting among the borrowers since 2018. There is the increasing trend led by public, compared to the ongoing decline in the private sec…

The consumer price index increased 1.1% MoM in March. The result for the month is explained by seasonal and supply factors. The year-on-year rate was 3.0% (3.3% in February) at the upper limit of the Central Bank's target range.

The German Bund 10Y term premium turned positive in the aftermath of the pandemic, boosted by the upward trend in the uncertainty surrounding inflation as well as spillover effects from a higher US term-premium. Furthermore, Euro Area growth un…

Foreign currency adjusted weekly credit growth fell from 1% to 0.3% due to both commercial and consumer credits in the sector. Total credits’ 13-week annualized trend rose slightly from 34.4% to 35% with the impact of strong weekly growth rates of the previous 4 weeks.

This first rate cut marks the start of a long and gradual easing cycle that will most likely keep the monetary policy stance restrictive throughout this year and next even if Banxico cuts the policy rate without skipping any meeting in the remainder of the year and in 2025.

The Fed appears to have achieved a better balance of risks around its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. This suggests that it will soon begin to normalize its policy stance, probably in June, although it will proceed cauti…

Banxico’s board had already signaled that a rate cut next week was likely. We think that is a done deal following this month’s inflation prints. We expect Banxico to cut the policy rate by 25 bps, to 11.00%. The focus will be on the signals abo…

The Fed will likely convey that it continues to look for “more good data” before feeling enough confidence to begin cutting rates as the strength of economic activity has extended and shelter inflation has surprised to the upside.

Adaptation to accelerated climate change is imperative, which can be an opportunity for sustainable financing from the private sector if the conditions are in place. It remains to be seen.

GDP grew 1.4% y/y in January. He highlighted the growth of sectors that have remained in negative territory for a long time, such as the construction sector and non-primary manufacturing. On the contrary, the agricultural sector continues to be hit by the weather.