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In what was a highly volatile week for financial markets, marred by the tit-for-tat US China trade dispute, equity volatility swung sharply.
The dynamics of Global Investment Funds flows in 1Q19 can be characterized by a widening bond-equity divergence, and a visible moderation in inflows to EMs. Looking ahead, we expect EM outflows to continue at a moderate pace until global volatility eases. In a risk scenario, EMs to face more intense and persistent outflows.
Equity markets bounced back trimming some loses inflicted by the renewed trade tensions, while volatility eased as Trump announced a six month extension of the deadline for imposing auto tariffs on Europe and Japan. Expectation of central banks support also contributed to the positive market tone today.
Risk-off mood abated somewhat as markets remain hopeful that US and China would eventually resolve their trade differences.
Cautious tone prevailed in financial markets during most of the morning, after the US and China failed to salvage a last-minute deal to avoid the latest US tariff hikes, in turn leading to the escalation of the trade war.
Risk-off mood resurfaced in financial markets, boosting VIX volatility and safe haven demand, although underlying hopes of an eventual trade resolution contained market losses.
Financial markets rattled for the third straight day as US-China trade tensions festered ahead of crucial negotiations between high-level officials in Washington, starting today. Trump’s rebuke that ‘China broke the deal’, accelerated the sell-off in equities.
The 'risk-off' mood persisted across markets today as global growth concerns mounted in the wake of escalating US-China trade conflict, downbeat China exports data, and a flair-up in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with Iran poised to breach parts of the nuclear deal.