June 21, 2022
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In addition to the remaining effects of the pandemic, challenges associated with the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, global inflationary pressures and the tightening of financial conditions worsen the current risk scenario.
They will peak once the Fed is done tightening. Slowing demand to bring down inflation without significant pain is “not getting any easier”, but markets (still?) price in a soft landing.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a further step in its process of normalizing monetary policy by announcing at its latest meeting that it will end its asset purchase program in July, and that it is prepared to pick up the pace of its rate hikes to contain inflation, in line with other central banks.
At last week's ECB meeting Christine Lagarde announced that the central bank has started out on a "journey" toward the normalization of monetary policy through a series of measures that it will take gradually over the next few months.
The ECB took a decisive step in its monetary policy normalization journey today as it pre-announced a series of interest rate hikes, starting next month. The unanimous decision was accompanied by a notable upward revision to Euro Area’s inflation projections and a downgrade on the growth outlook
In April 2022, the balance of traditional bank deposits exhibited a real YoY growth rate of 1.5%, while outstanding credit granted by commercial banks to the non-financial private sector (NFPS) grew 0.9% in real terms, the first real growth rate recorded since July 2020.
Credit to households has shown greater recovery and is the main impulse for the growth of financing to the private sector, while the weakness of business financing lingers. Likewise, demand deposits maintain their dynamism, while the growth of time deposits remains in red figures.
May 16, 2022
US | Treasury yields and interest rates will likely peak once the Fed is done tightening
Bringing inflation back down to target will likely cause “some pain”; yet, markets are (still) pricing in a soft landing. With the Fed set to hike rates by 50 bps in June and July, the tightening pace is set to be the fastest since the 1994-1995 hiking cycle.