Global Economy latest publications
Industrial Production (IP) grew higher than expectations by 13.8% yoy in calendar adjusted terms and 19.9% yoy in raw series in August. Despite the fading positive base effects 3Q onwards, given the strong momentum so far and recovering global growth, we keep our 2021 GDP growth forecast at 9% with risks on the upside.
October 12, 2021
Colombia | Challenges for the Colombian economy in the face of the pandemic and beyond
The challenges of the Colombian economy are presented in aspects such as pandemic, reactivation and recovery, employment, education and a condition of life with less poverty and more support in old age.
October 4, 2021
Mexico | Further dynamism of formal employment, probably driven by outsourcing reform
2021 is shaping up to be historic in formal job creation, but risks persist. Forward data of September would point to a job creation unprecedented in the last 24 years.
Consumer prices increased by 1.25% in September resulting in an annual inflation of 19.58%, up from 19.25%. We expect consumer inflation to increase further in October before declining to near 17% at the end of the year, with the positive base effects, where risks are clearly on the upside.
Persistent inflationary pressures in recent months in the United States and to a lesser extent in Europe and the slowdown in activity indicators raise fears that in the most extreme scenarios the world economy is heading toward stagflation reminiscent of the 1970s.
October 1, 2021
Colombia | In august, the labor market showed good signs for the second consecutive month
In August, the unemployment rate stood at 12.3%, lower than in August 2020, but higher than in August 2019. Between July and August 2021, with comparable data, the unemployment rate fell by 1.2 p.p., a reduction that was leveraged on employment growth.
September 28, 2021
Colombia | Challenges the Colombian economy faces on post pandemic and global trends
Major global trends such as the aging of the population, greater digitalization and concern for the environment, among others, will bring great challenges for the Colombian economy, which is beginning its gradual recovery process.
The election results show a very open electoral landscape—with a narrow victory by the SPD. These elections are important because they signal the start of an electoral cycle in the major European countries, within a context plagued with problems needing to be resolved.