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In August, 36.6 million new formal jobs were registered according to the Mexican Social Security Institute, with this figure a total of 20.4 million insured workers were registered. From January to August 342 thousand new jobs were created, 46.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year.
The current global and regional scenarios for the Colombian economy are challenging. Volatility and uncertainty are the daily bread and we quickly move from the novel of the commercial war between the United States and China to the novel of Brexit.
At its meeting last Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) launched a comprehensive package of easing measures, as Draghi had—for all intents and purposes—been signaling over recent months (in his speech at Sintra and, most significantly, at July's monetary policy meeting).
GDP growth in Q3 could be around 0.5% QoQ, a slightly weaker evolution than that consistent with the BBVA Research outlook for 2019 (2.3% YoY). Partial economic indicators show some signs of weakness on domestic demand and job creation, while external demand could grow again
The search for yield and looser monetary policies across the board, favor sovereign spreads compression, despite a worsening global outlook, poorer incoming data and balance of risks, and the lack of improvement of fiscal disequilibria.
The central bank came in line with what we were expecting announcing a strong package of further accommodative measures. It enhanced the forward guidance on rates, cut the depo rate by 10bps, announced a two-tier system for bank reserves and a new open-ended asset purchase program (APP) and sweetened TLTRO-III conditions.
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) reduced the policy rate by 325 bps from 19.75% to 16.50%. The movement was higher than expected (Consensus 275 bps) but the reaction of financial markets to today´s decision was positive as the CBRT justified the movement with a faster than expected disinflation in the statement.
Economic package reinforces signals of fiscal discipline by establishing a primary surplus target at a weak period of the business cycle.Consequently, it is positive that the federal government has proposed a primary surplus of 0.7% of GDP instead of the 1.3% that it had suggested in Pre-Criteria of economic policy for 2020