Global Economy latest publications
Over the last few weeks we have been reviewing our global and local economic outlook scenario and the year economic performance has been especially challenging due to the change in international conditions, mainly.
We maintain our GDP forecast fall of 1.2% in 2019, which will grow quarterly form 2Q-19 due to the recovery of agricultural campaign and the reduction of FX market tensions. By 2020, the economy will have processed the tensions caused by the electoral uncertainty and will grow by 2.5% as private domestic demand recovers.
Economic growth will continue to be led by investment in view of the expected stabilisation in consumption spending. We estimate GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 will be at 3.0% each year and inflation at 3.3% and 3.2%, respectively. The Central Bank will keep its interest rates stable for a long time.
We estimate output growth for 1H19 around 2%YoY, accelerating to roughly 4% in 2H19. As a result, Peru’s GDP will grow 2,9% in 2019, one percentage point less than our previous estimate from three months ago. For 2020, we anticipate growth will approach 4%.
July 18, 2019
Global | Updated forecasts: World growth to soft land, amid trade tensions and stimulus
Global growth continues in a smooth downward path, led by the weakness of the industrial sector and exports due to trade tensions. Persistent low inflation led central banks to reassess their monetary policy stance. We revised downward our world GDP forecast 0.1pp to 3.3% for 2019 and 2020, with strongly downward risks
The permanent reduction of Pemex's tax burden and the possible additional contribution of resources to Pemex beyond 2022, should be supplemented with changes in tax policies that help keep federal government revenues relatively stable and do not risk meeting fiscal targets.
The growth of the Spanish economy is slightly revised upwards to 2.3% in 2019, due to the positive surprises recorded until June, and remains at 1.9% for 2020. The expansion is expected to continue supported by a gradual recovery of the global environment and a more expansionary monetary policy
According to the IMSS data from May to June, 20,368,666 formal jobs were registered, that is, 14.2 thousand less jobs compared to the previous month, this job loss is mainly due to the reduction of more than 57 thousand temporary jobs.