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September 11, 2020

Mexico | Physical and financial health in the face of Covid-19

With Covid-19, it is not only necessary to take care of physical health, but also financial health, mainly because we are exposed to negative variations in income. The note presents recommendations in case of being under these variations.

September 11, 2020

Mexico | The 2021 Economic Package: Opportunity for countercyclical policy

This week the Ministry of Finance released the fiscal package that he presented to Congress for next year. It is the third presented by this administration. I think it is positive that, after three fiscal packages, it can be confirmed that it is a government committed to maintaining fiscal balances.

September 8, 2020

Mexico | Economic package 2021 based on relatively optimistic GDP and income assumptions

The economic package reinforces the signal of fiscal discipline by establishing a primary balance of 0% of GDP. It is positive that the federal government has proposed that goal instead of the deficit of 0.6% of GDP that it had suggested in Pre-Criteria for 2021.

September 4, 2020

U.S. | Signs of sustained labor market momentum in August

The labor market continued to improve in August with nonfarm payrolls growing by 1.4M and the unemployment rate dropping to 8.4%. The number of persons on temporary layoff declined by 3.1M while the labor force participation edged up to 61.7%.
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September 3, 2020

Colombia | Effects of COVID-19 on July employment

In July, the pace of job creation moderated and the number of unemployed fell, reflecting the lack of dynamism in the labor force. As a result, the national unemployment rate fell from 20.8% to 19.8% between June and July.

September 3, 2020

Turkey | Headline CPI stays at 11.77% in August

Consumer prices increased by 0.86% mom in August, leading the annual inflation to stay almost stable at 11.77%. Annual core inflation rose to 11.03% from 10.25%, reflecting gradual exchange rate pass-thru and the impact of the demand pull factors. We expect the headline inflation to be 11% at the end of 2020.

August 31, 2020

Turkey | GDP slumped but beat market expectations

Turkish economy contracted by -9.9% in yearly terms in 2Q20. The growth rates in services and industry, sensitive to the Covid-19 shock, were the key factors behind. We revise our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -1% from the previous 0%, keeping the same forecast range from -3% to +1%.

August 27, 2020

Mexico | The recent increase in inflation is transitory

Banco de México should not react to recent increases in inflation. In the absence of structural inflationary pressures, the central bank should continue to relax monetary policy.