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In recent years, the main economies of Latin America have successfully achieved a rapid and marked adjustment in their monetary policy in an attempt to curb rising inflation. Today, most of them have inflation at around their average for the last 10 years.
As part of the long tradition of calling economics the “dismal” science, I would like to review some of the risk scenarios facing the Spanish economy, now that BBVA Research has raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively.
Spain faces a fiscal adjustment of around 2.5 percentage points of GDP over the next few years. Its debt and public deficit levels make it vulnerable and must be improved through a more efficient set of public policies.
Deforestation in Colombia is unsustainable environmentally, economically, and socially. Reversing it requires strengthening land ownership and usage systems, promoting sustainable development, and assigning value to natural assets. Coordination…
The accumulated Construction GDP grows 10.1% in the second quarter of 2024, with increases in all subsectors. In a change of trend, the mortgage market is now increasing 2.2% in real amount and is set to continue advancing
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate, keeping a tone similar to September MPC, despite the negative surprise of the September inflation. We maintain our first rate cut expectation in December with a 250 bps cut, where the timing and magnitude would depend on how the monthly inflation trend is improving.
The moderation in domestic demand continues, while the production side demonstrates a clearer worsening trend in 3Q. We expect GDP growth to be 3.2% and retreat further to 2.7% on restrictive monetary policy, tight financial conditions and expected fiscal consolidation in 2025.
Formal employment grew by 1.6% in September. Despite the increase, the growth was lower than expected, reflecting a more significant slowdown and worsening short- and medium-term employment expectations, influenced by the country's anticipated …
The European Central Bank (ECB) can take satisfaction from recent inflation data from the eurozone. Much of the downside surprise has been due to the drop in oil, but there is also some progress in services prices. Coupled with economic weaknes…
In its October meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to maintain the policy rate at 5.25%, surprising the consensus that had anticipated a further 25-basis-point cut. The monetary policy stance, understood as the ex-ante real reference…
Domestic demand is driving Colombia's economic recovery, with GDP projected to grow by 2.0% in 2024 and up to 3.5% by 2026. Investment and consumption, particularly in durable goods, will fuel growth, while inflation and interest rates continue to decline.
National inflation was 3.5% MoM (209% YoY) in September, in line with the average expectation of market analysts (BCRA consensus: 3.5%). This is the first time since Feb-22 that monthly inflation has breached the 4.0% floor.
