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The economic activity decelerates further especially driven by the weakening in industry. Aggregate demand remains stronger than supply, keeping inflationary pressures alive. Risks would be on the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%, considering the strong performance in 1H24 and continuing supportive fiscal stance.

Despite the slowdown, permanent formal employment has shown constant gains. In June, formal employment had a year-on-year growth of 2.0%, 0.1 percentage points below our forecast, confirming the expected deceleration trend.

The EU's aspirations for sustainability, competitiveness, and resilience hinge on its ability to close the innovation gap with the US in disruptive technologies. This requires a dual approach: significantly increasing targeted public funding an…

Mexico faces significant structural economic challenges, with informality standing out as one of the most complex to address. Although there have been efforts to understand and analyze informality from various perspectives, these efforts have l…

The labor informality rate in Colombia is higher for men (58%) than for women (53%), unlike other countries in the region. However, in specific subgroups like educational level and rural areas, women are more informal. Policies should focus on …

Political events at the centre scene, in a year marked by key elections in many regions with two warlike conflicts with tragic consequences still underway, contrasts with the resilience of the global economy, which continues its very soft landing process of activity and inflation almost silently.

The economic activity shows signs of cooling, while the normalization in demand continues to be gradual. The inflation trend continues easing in the presence of historically much tighter monetary stance. Still, high inflation expectations and supportive fiscal stance remain as the challenges on the inflation outlook.

There is still no clear indication of a severe slowdown in the labor market, though it has weakened more than it initially appears. The slower rate of job creation, coupled with frequent downward adjustments to monthly employment figures, sugge…

The labor market in May showed a gender gap in the national unemployment rate of 3.1 percentage points, the lowest since 2010, highlighting an advance in gender equity in Colombia.

Consumer prices rose by 1.64% m/m in June, well below our expectation (2.24%), which led to an annual inflation of 71.60%. We expect the monthly consumer inflation trend to continue to weaken, driving the annual inflation down to 45-50% range b…

In May, the national unemployment rate stood at 10.3%, 0.2 pps lower than a year ago. Employment grew by 463 thousand new employees. The gender gap in unemployment was the lowest since 2010. The arts, construction, food services and public administration sectors led job creation.

The last two years in Latin America have been marked by differences in macroeconomic policy strategies. Chile and Peru have made significant interest rate reductions as their inflation has allowed. Meanwhile, Colombia and Mexico are more reluctant to implement significant reductions in their rates.