Macroeconomic Analysis

Social Security registrations increased by 186,600 and registered unemployment by 43,100, driven by the extraordinary regularization process for immigrants. After seasonal adjustment, the number of Social Security contributors is estimated to have risen by 96,300 and the number of registered unemployed by 10,300.

Consumer inflation came in at 2.58% m/m in Oct26, exceeding our forecast (2.45%) and consensus (2.4%), lifting annual inflation to 29.8% (vs. 29.7% in Sep26). We maintain our 2026 year-end inflation forecast at 30%, with risks slightly tilted to the upside, and continue to expect the CBRT to pause at its December meeting.

The labor market showed a partial recovery in September, following the sharp deterioration recorded in August, partly due to the earthquake. The national unemployment rate declined to 8.0%, from 8.2% a year earlier. However, the slowdown in job creation persists.

The Spanish economy remains dynamic, with growth forecast at 2.6% in 2026, although economic activity and employment are slowing. Demand continues to support the expansion, but weak productivity, subdued investment and supply-side constraints limit its sustainability and economic convergence.

Inflation in Peru accelerated in October to 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding the target range for the eighth consecutive month. The rise was mainly due to supply shocks in food and transport. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also rose, reaching 4.6%.

GDP grew 0.9% QoQ in 3Q26, with signs of stronger momentum in industry and wholesale trade. We introduce an upside bias to our growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

As of September 2026, the Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (SHRFSP) stood at 52.6% of GDP. Although total revenues were lower than budgeted, a reduction in total spending, mainly due among other factors to lower financial costs, favored the public balance.