Global Economy latest publications
Our GDP growth forecast for Portugal has been slightly revised downwards to 1.5% 2019. The Portuguese economy must successfully face many long-term challenges to seize the opportunities of the digital revolution
May 23, 2019
How much fiscal space does the country have? Is it possible to borrow more to support Pemex or to cope with a possible recession with a countercyclical fiscal expansion? In order to answer these questions, it is necessary to analyze Mexico's public debt profile.
Up to March hard data was mixed: retail sales are still strong, but contrast with the weakness of industrial sector and global trade. Soft data slid again in April: manufacturing confidence remains gloomy, while services PMIs fell in DM and EM increasing concerns about contagion effects from trade and manufacturing.
May 22, 2019
In July, the current economic expansion will reach 121 months, becoming the longest in modern history. Barring any shocks, inflation-adjusted GDP will average more than $21T in 2019 and by the end of the year real GDP per capita will surpass $58K.
May 21, 2019
Core inflation will likely fall back within the narrow range in which it has fluctuated for the past year.
The growth of the Spanish economy may stand between 0.6% and 0.8% QoQ during 2Q19, which would introduce an upward bias on BBVA Research's forecast for 2019 (2.2%). Domestic spending leads the advance of activity and uncertainty over external demand remains high.
May 20, 2019
The decision by the United States to increase the trade tariffs for China once again has brought the trade truce to a halt and fired up China’s tit-for-tat policy.