Publications

The labor market remains solid with national unemployment at historic lows of 8.8% and employment growth of 2.7%. However, a duality persists in the 13 main cities, where unemployment rose to 9.4% and employment growth slowed to 0.8% annually.

En decisión unánime, BanRep mantuvo inalterada la tasa de interés de política monetaria en 11,25% en abril. Observan amplia incertidumbre en el entorno externo que les permite tomar una pausa para evaluar la evolución de diversos indicadores.

Economic activity increased by 0.6% q/q in 1Q26, one-tenth below expectations, and with a less favorable composition than anticipated: investment and goods exports surprised on the downside. Growth was driven by productivity per hour, despite a decline in hours worked.

The El Niño phenomenon in Colombia, with a probability close to 90% by September 2026, would bring drought conditions and higher temperatures. This climate shock would affect food supply and increase electricity generation costs, leading to temporary inflationary pressures in the economy.

Mexico’s formal employment began 2026 with weak growth, affected by low investment and business closures, particularly among SMEs. Informality is rising, while services support job creation and regional and sectoral disparities persist.

The automotive market recovered supported by improved affordability, credit conditions, and lower exchange rate distortions. However, local production and the external sector still face structural constraints, limiting the sustainability of growth over the medium term.

The CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 37%, in line with market expectations, missing another opportunity to deliver a positive surprise. The CBRT appears to consider existing measures sufficient and views conflict-related risks as temporary, despite the recent clear deterioration in inflation expectations.