Global Economy latest publications
Consumer prices increased by 2.30% in November, leading the annual inflation to reach 14.03% up from 11.9% in October. Cost push factors continued to weigh on the upside as domestic producer prices rose by 4% mom. After today's spike, we expect inflation to end 2020 at near 14% and maintain 2021 year-end forecast at 11%.
The labor market continued its recovery process in October, but it slowed down. Job creation was more related to the economic recovery and less to sectoral openings. Moving forward, the slow recovery of the labor market will continue
Although the second wave of the pandemic is going to have a major impact on the European economy in the last quarter of this year, recent news items have painted a somewhat clearer picture of what is in store for 2021.
U.S. battening down the hatches after exiting eye of the storm. Fed pause a precursor to further action? Auto sales outlook: health concerns at the wheel. Housing market conditions and outlook.
Turkish economy grew by 6.7% yoy in 3Q20. The qoq growth rate was sharp at 15.6%, leading the overall level to jump over the pre-pandemic level. GDP growth rate reached 0.5% yoy in the first 3 quarters of 2020. On top of the robust performance, 2020 GDP growth will likely get near 1% (above our current forecasts of 0%).
Public debt levels have skyrocketed globally due to the increase in fiscal expenditure needed for public measures to fight the economic damage caused by the pandemic, and by the effects of the slump in economic activity.
In contrast to the current account deficit recorded in the third quarter of 2019, this indicator showed a surplus of USD 17.498 billion in the third quarter of 2020, mainly due to the much higher positive balance on non-oil goods.
The Covid-19 shock may cause changes in the economic trends and their impact on the productive sectors. Therefore, the main global trends that will determine growth until 2025 are chosen and scenarios are created for them. Then, using a SUR model, the sectoral impact is estimated.