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April's inflation was the highest figure for the year but we believe it is a transitory increase and that at the end of the year it will return to the Bank of the Republic's target of 3% per year. Inflation recently published for April surprised the rise and stood at 0.5% per month above expectations.
The dynamics of Global Investment Funds flows in 1Q19 can be characterized by a widening bond-equity divergence, and a visible moderation in inflows to EMs. Looking ahead, we expect EM outflows to continue at a moderate pace until global volatility eases. In a risk scenario, EMs to face more intense and persistent outflows.
A batch of April economic indicators are announced today, together with previously released trade and credit data, suggesting that the risk of growth deceleration looms large even before the escalation of US-China trade war in early May.
IP contracted by 2.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in March (-4.4% Consensus & -4.6% BBVA Research). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly contraction of 1.7% in March (96% info) and 1.6% in April (47% info). A prudent policy mix remains key to maintain the recovery trend alive and avoid a “W” pattern.
Today Pemex signed a letter of commitment with three financial institutions to refinance USD 2.5 billion of its debt. It also renewed two lines of credit worth USD 5.5 billion, extending the repayment period from three to five years.
Cautious tone prevailed in financial markets during most of the morning, after the US and China failed to salvage a last-minute deal to avoid the latest US tariff hikes, in turn leading to the escalation of the trade war.

May 13, 2019

Closer to a trade war?

At BBVA Research we estimate that a tariff increase to 25% could bring Chinese GDP down 0.5 pp from our base scenario, in which China grows by around 6% in 2019. The impact on the other two trading blocks will be less severe, around 0.2 pp in the United States and 0.1 pp in the eurozone.
On May 1, a decree amending various laws that constitute the so-called labor reform was published.In order to fully assess the reform it will be necessary to wait for the secondary regulations to be published and for it to be implemented.