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October 6, 2022

Colombia Economic Outlook. October 2022

The Colombian economy will enter a lower growth fase. Private consumption will stabilize at more sustainable levels in the medium term. Inflation will gradually moderate in 2023. The Central Bank will have space to start a gradual interest rate reduction cycle at the end of 2023.

October 5, 2022

Colombia | As expected, inflation continued to rise, standing at 11.4% in September

Inflation continued to rise and in September registered an annual change of 11.4% and a monthly change of 0.93%. The figure was higher than expected by the average of market analysts and BBVA Research, at the upper limit of forecasts (0.92%), although it was lower than the monthly inflation observed in the previous month.

October 3, 2022

Peru | Growth isn't everything, but...

Although GDP per capita is not necessarily an indicator of social well-being, it is strongly correlated with improvements in people's quality of life.

October 3, 2022

Mexico | Additional thoughts on the fiscal package

Previously, I presented some arguments why it seems to me that tax revenues next year could be lower than estimated, which would present the government with the dilemma of having to cut spending or increase indebtedness.

October 3, 2022

Türkiye | Uncertainty on inflation figures

Consumer prices rose by 3.08% in September, below both market consensus (3.15%) and our expectation (3.7%), which led to an annual inflation of 83.5%. We expect consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year as base effects would start a disinflation path.

October 3, 2022

Global | A mild recession

The recession facing Europe and the United States, if not more countries, over the coming quarters is likely to be a quieter affair than other, deeper recessions seen in recent times. Ultimately, the current distortions within the economy are not as significant as in previous crises.

October 1, 2022

Colombia | Labor market shows slight signs of recovery in August

In August of this year, the national unemployment rate was 10.6% and the urban unemployment rate was 10.8%. In seasonally adjusted terms, compared to the previous month, the unemployment rate remained relatively stable at the national and urban levels. The labor market showed a weak improvement in August.

September 29, 2022

Banco de la República raised its monetary policy rate to 10.0%. With a 6 to 1 split vote

At its September meeting, Banco de la República increased the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 10.0%, in line with BBVA Research's expectations. The decision was split, with one vote in favor of a 50 bp increase.