Global Economy latest publications
The U.S. economy is beginning a strong expansionary cycle. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week adjusted its growth forecast for this country to 6.4% for 2021 and there are private analysts who forecast even higher rates.
In February, employment was boosted by the easing of mobility restrictions. By that month, 79% of the employment lost when it had deteriorated the most had been recovered. Its recovery is expected to continue and its pace will depend on economic growth, the progress of the pandemic and the measures to contain it.
Despite the difficult global context brought about by COVID, the Spanish exports of goods maintained their export market destination and gained competitiveness and share in international trade. Outlook is favourable, although the uncertainty about the pandemic remains high and its impact on global activity is relevant.
In Colombia, the gender gap in the labor market already existed before the pandemic; however, the suspension of in-person education mainly affected the employment of women who were not heads of households and households with children, widening the gap in the labor participation rate and possibly the wage gap.
The first quarter has seen much more doubt surrounding the economy in Europe than America. The latest wave of the pandemic is severely impacting the largest countries in the area. The situation will improve though, with the acceleration of vaccination drives and the knock-on effect of increased growth in the United States.
COVID-19 hit international trade in 2020, paralyzing activity in several sectors and disrupting global supply chains. Demand plummeted and trade flows were severely damaged. The upward trend in the export of Spanish goods that had been ongoing since 2010 was also interrupted.
April 2, 2021
U.S. | Strong job creation backed by vaccination, reopenings and massive fiscal support
March saw an addition of 916,000 jobs to nonfarm payroll and a drop in the unemployment rate by 0.2pp to 6.0%. This high uptick in the employment situation was brought about by a successful vaccination campaign, the ongoing reopening of the economy and massive fiscal support.
The expansion of global trade has slowed in recent years, following a long period of exuberance. How will trade flows evolve over the next decade, taking into account recent trends such as the pandemic and climate change, as well as other factors?