Publications

The 2026 General Economic Policy Criteria confirm the intention of the federal government to regain fiscal discipline by setting a target of 0.5% of GDP for the primary surplus and look to achieve stability around 52.3% of GDP for public debt, sending a positive signal.

Public spending in Colombia has grown faster than revenues, pushing the deficit and debt up to 61% of GDP. Fiscal sustainability requires aligning spending with actual revenues, defining the optimal size of the State, and prioritizing efficient investments that boost well-being and growth.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 51.3% of GDP at the end of 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be 52.6% at year-end with a public deficit and PSBR of 3.8% and 4.3% of GDP, respectively.

Spain needs to recalibrate its fiscal policy to ensure a greater emphasis on spending in production, infrastructure, education, and new technologies. This would help boost long-term growth and improve well-being.

Spanish public debt will come down very slowly over the coming years and is at risk of stagnating at around 100% of GDP. It seems that the extraordinary conditions that helped it come down have been squandered to promote reforms that would lead to a more robust path of fiscal consolidation.

Argentina’s economy kept recovering in Q2 2025, driven by fiscal order, a re-monetization strategy, and a flexible exchange rate scheme. The outlook is still shaped by the electoral context and the challenge of ensuring lasting stability in a volatile global environment.

Despite trade tensions, Peru’s economy is expected to grow by 3,1% this year, supported by record-high terms of trade, improved business confidence, and the construction of new copper mines. Output growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2026, to around 2,7%, mainly due to increased electoral uncertainty.

This paper delivers the first comprehensive estimate of the dynamic fiscal multiplier of defence spending for the EU-27 by exploiting exogenous accrual-based government defence outlays and a combination of linear and non-linear Local Projection methods.