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December 4, 2024

Peru Economic Outlook. December 2024

The Peruvian economy will grow 3,1% in 2024, 0,2pp more than expected in October. The revision mainly reflects the third quarter positive surprise. For 2025 we expect a 2,7% expansion, amid a challenging external context, but also when large infrastructure projects will begin construction.

November 5, 2024

Mexico | Pemex contributes to a public spending above budget

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 49.3% of GDP at the end of the third quarter. We anticipate that this balance will be 50.8% by year-end.

October 21, 2024

Spain | The public sector after the COVID crisis

Spain faces a fiscal adjustment of around 2.5 percentage points of GDP over the next few years. Its debt and public deficit levels make it vulnerable and must be improved through a more efficient set of public policies.

October 7, 2024

Spain | Changes in the financing of common regime autonomous communities, 2002-2022

This Working Paper contains homogenized series of regional funding (constructed on the basis of homogeneous competences and equal fiscal effort) from 2002 to 2022.

October 3, 2024

Peru Economic Outlook. October 2024

GDP will grow 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2025. Private spending will gain traction in the coming quarters, supported by more favourable financial conditions, the impact of private pension funds withdrawals, and the beginning of construction of some infrastructure projects, while public spending will moderate.

August 16, 2024

Mexico | Public debt could reach 60% of GDP in 2030

A fiscal consolidation that would imply a public deficit of 3.0% of GDP (-3.5% of PSBR) is expected for next year, which would occur with a primary surplus and financial cost of 0.4% and 3.4% of GDP, respectively.

August 6, 2024

Spain | The 2022 settlement under the common system of autonomous communities financing

This Working Paper analyzes the settlement payment for 2022 under the common system of autonomous communities financing, recently published by the Ministry of Finance.

August 2, 2024

Mexico | Non-tax revenue, IMSS, ISSSTE and CFE support public income in the first semester

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 47.2% of GDP at the end of the first semester. We anticipate that this balance will be 50.8% by year-end.

May 6, 2024

Mexico | Public spending driven by subsidies, transfers and contributions in 1Q24

Tax revenue was MXN 8,922 million (0.03% of GDP) below budget since the excise taxes on fuels intake was below budget despite its real annual increment of 195.1% in 1Q24.

March 13, 2024

Mexico Economic Outlook. March 2024

Downward revision to our 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimate to 2.5% (2.9% previously), with lower dynamism of domestic demand.

February 6, 2024

Mexico | Debt servicing costs increase public spending

Public revenue in 2023 was MXN 84,326 million (0.27% of GDP) below budget due to lower oil-related income as international prices of a crude oil barrel went down.