Public Finance

Tighter global financial conditions and persistent inflation pressures require a prudent policy mix. We expect monetary policy to stay restrictive, with historically high real rates and continued macroprudential measures, while fiscal and credit support is likely to be selective.

Colombia’s economy will grow 2.6% in 2026, ease to 2.3% in 2027, and rebound to 3.1% in 2028. The 2027 slowdown will be temporary as growth shifts from public to private-sector support, which will strengthen in 2028. Fiscal imbalances and inflation remain the key challenges ahead.

The economy of La Rioja will maintain solid growth. GDP would grow by 1.8% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, supported by employment, consumption, and investment, but conditioned by industrial weakness, exports, and a more adverse external environment.

The 2027 economic package projects a gradual fiscal consolidation with a wide deficit of -3.9% of GDP. Despite fiscal prudence, challenges remain due to low tax collection and spending rigidity. Seeking revenue growth without a comprehensive reform limits fiscal space for more public investment.

The Recovery Plan has injected significant funds and appears to be having a certain redistributive impact across regions. However, it faces risks of under-execution, and its completion may reduce investment, alongside persistent doubts regarding its impact on productivity.

This working paper analyzes the financing system for singular competencies in Spain, which generates disparate valuations and equity problems between territories. The problem is illustrated with 2023 data, and suggestions are proposed to eliminate inconsistencies and improve the system's transparency.

Building on the analysis initiated in a previous study, the Working Paper describes and assesses the new elements of the Government’s proposal to reform the SFA contained in the draft agreement sent to the Autonomous Communities several weeks ago.