Mexico | Financial cost favors public balance

As of September 2026, the Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (SHRFSP) stood at 52.6% of GDP. Although total revenues were lower than budgeted, a reduction in total spending, mainly due among other factors to lower financial costs, favored the public balance.

Key points

• Key points:
• Total spending showed a real annual variation of -0.4% in January-September 2026, mainly due to a negative incidence of 0.5 percentage points from financial costs.
• Total revenues fell by 2.8% in real annual terms, affected by a 21.5% contraction in oil revenues, while tax revenues grew by 0.7%.
• The primary balance observed in January-September 2026 was 3,866 million pesos, 174,937 million below the primary surplus target.
• Net domestic debt as a % of GDP increased from 40.7% in Dec-25 to 41.2% in Sep-26, while external debt decreased from 11.9% to 11.4% in the same period.
• A fiscal reform is considered necessary to increase tax revenue by at least two percentage points of GDP and improve the sustainability of public finances.

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