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Regional Analysis China latest publications

October 6, 2022

China Economic Outlook. October 2022

Chinese economy has experienced a bumpy recovery after the Shanghai lockdown was lifted. We lowered our 2022 prediction from 4.5% to 3.6%.

September 16, 2022

China | The economy shows resilience amid policy support

Chinese economy shows resilience in August after a bumpy recovery path since the Shanghai lockdown lifted amid the easing of fiscal and monetary policy support.

September 16, 2022

China | Estimating the optimal level of the country's foreign reserves

We estimate China’s optimal foreign reserve level is around USD 2,769.3 billion, USD 454.5 billion lower than the current level. That means, there is still some buffer to reduce the reserve amid risks of western potential sanctions.

September 1, 2022

Asia | Imported inflation is still manageable

Asia’s growing inflation pressures have significantly picked up due to the global supply chain disruptions and high commodity prices. Inflation dynamics have been divergent as consumption habits hit differently. Inflation inertia remains high, while housing and transport push is stable, food prices are climbing.

August 23, 2022

China | What do we expect of China’s policy rate in 2022?

The PBoC cut MLF, repo rate and LPR recently to stimulate growth, but it does not indicate China will start a massive easing cycle.

August 16, 2022

China | A bumpy recovery amid “zero Covid” and real estate crash

July’s indicators, namely retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment, all fell below their previous readings and significantly missed the market expectations, posing challenges to the whole year growth outlook.

July 19, 2022

China Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2022

Chinese authorities face "Impossible Trinity" of policy targets in 2022. They reverted to “old" economic growth engine-infrastructure, real estate and exports-to stimulate growth from Shanghai lockdown.

July 15, 2022

China | Growth is recovering from its Q2 trough

Due to the authorities’ expansionary monetary and fiscal policy this year, the economy started to gradually recover in May and June as the lockdown measures in Shanghai came to an end.