Regional Analysis China
Regional Analysis China latest publications
Growth has continued its downward trend in Q4 2021. China’s unsynchronized business cycle and inflation cycle call for an unsynchronized policy cycle.
2021 Q4 GDP outturn together with December real economic indicators again confirmed the growth slowdown, calling for more easing measures in 2022.
The COP26 finally took place in Glasgow. This report analyses why China's pledge is so important to the world’s ongoing campaign against climate. It also summarizes a number of challenges China faced and stock-takes policy levers which can help the country to achieve its ambitious carbon neutrality target.
We analyze the ongoing real estate sector crackdown measures and the reasons behind. We investigate the impact of housing price deceleration on banking, government, enterprises and the household sector and conclude that real estate sector needs a soft-landing in 2022.
Economic slowdown will continue as the authorities are willing to sacrifice short-term growth figures to trade for long-term social equality and carbon neutrality, but it will not turn into either Lehman or Volcker Moment.
We analyze and clarify the market misperceptions on the "three pillars" of China's new growth model: common prosperity, self-sufficient technology under "dual circulation" strategy and carbon neutrality. We also identify winners and losers of the sectors under the new policy paradigm.
Growth has slowed down in Q3 amid a number of headwinds, including regulatory storms, default risk of real estate giant, the electricity crunch and the authorities’ new campaign of “common prosperity” and social equality.
The Q3 GDP outturn together with September real economic indicators further confirmed a continuing moderated year on year growth momentum. The authorities are aware of the growth deceleration and will strike a balance between stimulating growth and pressing ahead structural reforms going forward.