Regional Analysis China

Regional Analysis China latest publications

July 3, 2020

China | How to finance the fiscal stimulus package?

This report analyzes the ways to finance this round of fiscal stimulus package and responds to the recent debate of fiscal deficit monetization. The report also makes policy suggestions to maintain Chinese public debt level and financial stability in the long term.

June 3, 2020

China | De-Sinicization of Global Value Chain after COVID-19

This report identifies which industries are most vulnerable to relocate outside China after COVID-19 based on some typical global value chain indicators and empirical findings. We also gauge the impact of global value chain relocation on China's growth.

May 22, 2020

China | Main takeaways from Government Work Report at “Two Sessions”

On May 22th, in the third session of NPC, Premier Li Keqiang delivered the Government Work Report. The report not only summarized the achievements of China in 2019 but also made a blueprint of every perspective of economic and social development for 2020.

May 11, 2020

China's Arsenal in the Face of Global Recession

COVID-19 is pushing the world economy toward a deep recession that could endure in the long-term. To support the economy, the Chinese authorities have approved various fiscal and monetary policy tools that are suited to the current circumstances.

April 28, 2020

The impact of COVID-19 on China's Balance of Payments and foreign reserves: An update

COVID-19 tends to expand current account surplus while increase capital inflows under capital and financial account. Altogether its impact on China's Balance of Payments is limited.

April 22, 2020

China Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2020

China's GDP growth dipped to historical low in Q1 amid COVID-19. The sliding growth calls for more policy stimulus. We believe pro-growth measures will help put China’s growth engine back to the right track. The GDP growth rate will steadily climb up to 7% y/y in Q4, concluding 2020 with a full-year growth outturn of 2.2%.

April 20, 2020

China's economy shrinks and requires a bigger stimulus

The Chinese government has announced that its GDP has fallen by 6.8% YoY in the first quarter of 2020. The reduction is slightly more than expected and is a result of the unprecedented economic turbulence caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in the country.

April 16, 2020

What’s in China’s policy arsenal to counter global recession?

This report analyzes the possible monetary and fiscal policy tools in front of the global economic recession led by COVID-19. We believe that fiscal policy should play a leading role. Regarding monetary easing, the interest rate cut progress should be more conservative while liquidity management should be enhanced.