Regional Analysis China
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The Q2 GDP growth came at 6.2% y/y (versus 6.4% y/y in Q1), in line with market consensus. Growth slowdown in Q2 is widely expected amid the unsettled trade war with the US and the domestic structural obstacles such as debt overhang and financial risks.
Recently, the surplus of the current account also narrowed significantly. Looking ahead, a combination of “current account deficit” and “capital account two-way fluctuation” could become a “new normal” for China’s Balance of Payments (BoP).
Although the non-performing loan ratio remained stable and the capital adequacy ratio still sufficient to meet financial needs, there is a diverging trend between large and small commercial banks. Some small banks are subject to capital shortfall amid deteriorating asset quality and persistent regulations on shadow banking.
A batch of May economic indicators are announced today, together with previously released trade and credit data, suggesting that the risk of growth deceleration looms large as US-China trade war remain unsettled. We anticipate more monetary and fiscal easing measures to be deployed to sustain growth momentum.
After six months of uneasiness caused by trade tensions, China’s economy proved its resilience when its announced 2019 Q1 GDP figure, along with a series of other activity indicators, surprised the market to the upside. Good growth figure in Q1 has largely relieved people’s concern of a hard-landing in China this year, whic…
April 1, 2019
China | Putting the final piece into the new monetary policy framework: timing is the key
China’s authorities recently raised their rhetoric of completing the new monetary policy framework. Many analysts view it as a signal of lifting the benchmark policy rates. We, however, do not envisage that the removal of benchmark policy rates will happen this year given growth headwinds and the lack of alternatives. Inste…
March 21, 2019
China | Five facts about outward direct investment and their implication for future trend
China’s ODI continues its downtrend in 2018 with energy sector outperforms other sectors. The share of Belt Road Initiative (BRI) countries is increasing, while other countries’ sentiments toward China’s investment remain mixed. We project China’s ODI is likely to bottom out in 2019 amid tougher scrutiny at home and abroad,…
On the opening day of the NPC, after predictably praising accomplishments in 2018 such as achieving the 6.5% growth target, Premier Li Keqiang hinted at concern and caution in the face of the high level of uncertainty.