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    March 18, 2020

    China | Forecasting modeling for China's inflation

    We are trying to assess a large group of forecasting models’ performance in predicting China’s inflation. Both linear and structural forecasting models are discussed, estimated and evaluated based on some typical criteria such as RMSE, MAE and Theil-U.

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    March 16, 2020

    China | Negative Jan-Feb economic activity outturns point to a historical low growth in Q1

    A batch of record-low negative January-February indicators announced today pointed to a significant slowdown in economic activities in Q1 amid the outbreak of COVID-19 in China.

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    March 4, 2020

    Lessons from China’s past banking bailouts

    China’s banking sector, particularly small and medium-sized banks, today face a headwind of asset quality deterioration. Revisiting Chinese bank rescues from the early 2000s, we examine how the authorities tackled a severe rise in non-performing loans (NPLs).

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    February 26, 2020

    The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on China’s External Balance

    Our results based on the foreign reserve decomposition method and the forecasting practice show that the impact of COVID-19 on China, although very large on Q1 and Q2 economic growth, will be quite limited on China’s Balance of Payments, especially the foreign reserve.

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    January 27, 2020

    US-China trade deal: a brake on slowdown in China

    In 2019 as a whole, and in the midst of trade tensions with the US, China grew by 6.1%. This represents half a point less than in 2018, close to the lower-end of the official growth target range of 6–6.5%, representing the lowest on record since 1990.

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    January 23, 2020

    China Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2020

    Chinese economic growth has slightly recovered in the last quarter of 2019, although it continued its medium-to-long-term slowdown trend amid unsettled trade war and domestic structural obstacles. The 2019 whole year GDP growth reached 6.1%, the lowest growth rate for the past three decades.

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    December 18, 2019

    RMB Internationalization: A Ten-year Review

    The RMB has taken steps on its internationalization march. This ppt reviews RMB's expanding role in global trade and businesses in the past decade, strategies to increase overseas usage of RMB and "811" devaluation and its implication. The next breakthrough will be the opening-up of the domestic bond market.

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    November 29, 2019

    China Banking Monitor

    Bank assets growth picked up to 7.7% in Q3 2019 supported by a higher loan growth rate. Assets quality worsened and diverged among big and smaller banks. Capital adequacy ratio dropped on faster growth in risk-weighted assets, small banks are facing deteriorating conditions in funding through NCDs and bond market.

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