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May 6, 2025
The report analyzes U.S. reciprocal tariffs on Asian countries, with Cambodia and Vietnam hit hardest. Dual dependency puts many Asian economies in a strategic dilemma between the US and China. Using input-output models, it presents three scenarios (risk, pragmatic, optimistic) showing varying GDP impacts.
April 22, 2025
China’s banks face headwinds in 2025 amid weak credit growth, low profitability, and property sector stress. Narrowing interest margins and declining lending rates have pushed ROA and ROE to record lows. Real estate woes, LGFV debt, and US tariffs weigh heavily on the sector, while links to shadow banking grown modestly.
March 13, 2025
Amid the China-US trade war, we still raised our China 2025 and 2026 GDP forecast due to the jumbo size stimulus package, the new growth engine high-end manufacturing to support growth and lower-than-expected tariff imposed.
March 3, 2025
The "two sessions" will discuss the most important issues ranging from the summary of last year economic achievements, to the announcement of 2025 key economic targets; from the continuation of the jumbo size stimulus package to outlining the blueprint of “Chinese-style modernization” with focus on high-end manufacturing.
February 27, 2025
The RMB is steadily growing as an international currency, with rising use in payments, trade finance, investment, and reserves. However, it still lags behind the USD and EUR. Factors like geopolitical shifts, financial market reforms, and alternative payment systems (CIPS) continue to shape its trajectory.
February 19, 2025
This report examines U.S. reciprocal tariffs on Asian economies after President Trump’s announcement to match trading partners' tariffs. Findings show these tariffs won’t significantly cut U.S. trade deficits, as imbalances stem from comparative advantages, supply chains, and production costs, not tariff rates.
January 20, 2025
Amid fears of escalating US-China tensions in Trump 2.0, questions about Hong Kong's USD peg have emerged. The HKMA remains committed, supported by strong reserves and political backing. While abandoning the peg is unlikely short-term, external shocks and geopolitical shifts highlight the need for long-term alternatives.
December 10, 2024
The report examines China’s potential responses to the new wave of U.S. tariffs under President Trump’s second term (Trump 2.0). It highlights various policy tools that China could use but also acknowledges the significant limitations posed by its ongoing domestic economic challenges.
