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May 19, 2025
The observatory analyzes the cyclical behavior of GDP and exports in Spain up to the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a negative gap in GDP per working age population (WAP) compared to its trend level (-0.9 pp), although its growth slightly exceeds the historical trend.
May 19, 2025
On April 28, Spain experienced one of the most serious electricity blackouts in its history. Beyond the immediate collapse in activity, the blackout had a clear impact on consumer spending—especially purchases made using digital payment methods.
May 19, 2025
The images of the floods that hit Valencia last October are still fresh in the collective memory. BBVA Research has developed an analytical framework to make the most of the available information and quantitatively assess both the impact and recovery after a climate disaster.
May 14, 2025
Economic growth will continue to support the dynamism of the real estate sector in the coming months. The decline in interest rates, the strength of the labor market, and positive net migration will sustain strong demand in 2025, although it is expected to decelerate in 2026 as a result of slower economic growth.
May 12, 2025
In 2024, The GPD of the Canary Islands could have grown by 3.7%, and is expected to increase by 3.4% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. This strength is due to the robust performance of the services sector, particularly in tourism, as well as the domestic demand, where consumer spending has been increasing its weight.
May 12, 2025
As we draw closer to 2026—the last year for Spain to mobilize its funding under the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (RRRP)—now would be a good time to take stock of the progress made, while also examining the constraints that still prevent Spain from unlocking the full transformative potential of this funding.
May 9, 2025
BBVA customers' card spending fell sharply on April 28, 2025, due to the power outage that affected the Iberian Peninsula. In particular, spending by customers residing in the affected areas was 41 percentage points below the average observed on non-holiday Mondays in April 2024.
May 9, 2025
This note proposes a framework to estimate the employment effects of floods in Spain, combining imputed damage data with a spatial panel model. These extreme events cause job losses and regional spillovers, but timely aid mitigates them. The DANA in Valencia illustrates the frameworks' accuracy and its policy relevance.
May 8, 2025
The execution of grants and public tenders under the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan has reached 58% of the planned investments, equivalent to 2.9% of GDP. It is estimated that over 1,100,000 beneficiaries—mainly SMEs and individuals—have already received support.
May 6, 2025
Social Security affiliation increased by 231,000 people, and unemployment fell by 67,400. After seasonal adjustment (swda), the number of contributors is estimated to have risen by 64,000, and unemployment dropped by 21,000. The percentage of General Regime affiliates with temporary contracts remained at 13.7% (swda).
April 28, 2025
After removing the quarter’s negative seasonal effects, employment rose by 0.7 % QoQ SWDA—0.1 percentage point above Social Security registrations—and hours worked also climbed by 0.2 %. Meanwhile, the temporary employment rate held at 15.6 % SWDA , and the unemployment rate dropped to 10.7 % SWDA .
