Publications

This Working Paper briefly describes the latest update of RegData, a database that compiles the main economic and demographic aggregates for Spain’s regions over the past six decades.

Spain began 2026 with persistent storms, making it one of the wettest Januaries in decades. Unevenly distributed water gains, both geographically and over time, highlight hydroclimatic volatility as increasingly relevant to Spain’s outlook.

In 2025, the GDP of the Región de Murcia may have grown by 3.1%, with growth moderating to around 2.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. Looking ahead, economic activity will be shaped by high uncertainty regarding economic and trade policy, as well as the slow recovery in Europe.

In the second week of February, in-person spending in the affected Andalusian provinces almost fully reversed the negative impact of heavy rainfall and flooding. However, tourism-related spending, both foreign and interprovincial, continues to show weakness due to the ongoing railway disruption with Madrid.

After two weeks of railway disruption, consumption in the affected provinces shows a more generalized slowdown. Growth in domestic card spending moderates, while foreign card spending has already turned negative. The largest impact continues to be concentrated in bilateral flows between Madrid and the affected provinces.

Public deficit is estimated to have declined to 2.4% of GDP in 2025, supported by the cyclical recovery and the reduced impact of the extraordinary factors observed in 2024. Compliance with fiscal rules would bring the deficit down to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, provided additional consolidation measures are adopted.

The increase in total tourism spending (domestic and international) remained dynamic during the third quarter of 2025, reaching 6.5% year-over-year (6.4% in the previous period). The acceleration of domestic tourism offset the moderation in international tourism.