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GDP growth forecast for 2024 is raised to 2.5% thanks to the good performance of external demand, the increase in the labor force, and the execution of Recovery Plan funds. However, it will moderate to 2.1% in 2025, largely due to constraints in tourism growth.

Social Security enrollment grew by 220,300 and unemployment fell by 58,700. Seasonally adjusted, it is estimated that the number of contributors increased by 60,000, but the number of unemployed hardly changed. The percentage of those affiliated to the General Regime with temporary contracts stabilized at 14.4% CVEC.

Since the end of 2019 through the first quarter of 2024, the Gross Value Added (GVA) of the services sector has increased by 6.3%, compared to 3.7% for the total economy. In addition, the number of hours worked increased by more than 2%, compar…

In this edition of the QLMO, we analyze the labor market situation with data available up to the first quarter of 2024. We review the trends of the main indicators, examine the differences between the Labor Force Survey and administrative recor…

Evidence shows that permanent improvements in productivity lead to a gradual reduction in hours worked per employee. In contrast, reversing this order of causality hinders employment growth.

The GDP of the Valencian Community could increase by 2.1% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025, which would allow the creation of 103,000 new jobs in the region in the biennium.

According to BBVA credit card data, the first months of the year have been characterized by a slowdown in the growth of tourist spending in Spain compared to the last months of 2023, weighed down by the decline in consumption by Spaniards and despite the rebound of foreign tourism.

Spain's positive growth differential with the EU is good news, but it can be exhausted and is not enough to reduce the gap between GDP per capita and productivity, which is the only engine capable of generating sustained growth.

Social Security affiliation increased by 199,500, while unemployment declined by 60,500. Adjusted for seasonality, it's estimated that the number of contributors rose by 60,000 and the unemployed fell by 34,000. The proportion of General Regim…

GDP continues to rise sharply. However, the data shows a growth pattern that is unlikely to be sustainable in the long term. Even so, the differential growth that the Spanish economy is showing is something to be celebrated.

Spain has committed to undertake a huge fiscal adjustment over the next few years. While the impact on the economy will depend on its composition, evidence suggests that it may be significant. Even if this is not the case, it will create social tension.

Despite the quarter's negative seasonality, both the number of jobs (up 0.5% quarterly CVEC) and hours worked (up 0.3%) increased. Furthermore, the rate of temporary employment and the unemployment rate both fell (to 16.1% and 11.7% CVEC, respectively).