Regional Analysis Spain
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BVA Research forecasts indicate that the Spanish economy will grow by less than 2% in 2020. However, this growth could be reduced even further if some of the risks to the international economic scenario materialize.
One of the most hotly debated political issues during the last elections was the margin that Spain has for raising and lowering taxes.
Social security registrations fell by 213,000 people in August and grew by 2.5% YoY (2.6% YoY in July). Unemployment increased by 54,400 (-3.7% YoY). Excluding seasonal factors, the evolution of the labor market remains weak. Employment grew by 20,000 people, driven by services, and unemployment barely changed (-4,000)
August 27, 2019
The 2017 payment under the common system for the financing of autonomous communities
This note analyzes the payment under the common system for the financing of autonomous communities for 2017 which was recently made public by the Ministry of Finance.
After the downward surprise in the second quarter of 2019, the growth of the Spanish economy could be around 0.5% t/t during Q3. The available data reinforces the perception that domestic demand has slowed, while external demand is regaining some traction. Moreover, the slowdown in job creation is confirmed
Social security registrations increased by 15,500 people in July (2.6% YoY), less than expected, and unemployment fell by 4,300 (-3.9% YoY). Excluding seasonal factors, the number of people in employment grew by 20,000, despite the slowdown in the service sector, and unemployment rose for the second month in a row (5,000)
The Spanish economy decelerated by 0.2pp to 0.5% QoQ (2.3% YoY) in Q2. Domestic demand explained the moderation in growth (0.2pp QoQ; 1.6pp YoY) due to the unexpected slowdown in consumption and investment. The contribution of external demand increased (0.3pp QoQ; 0.7pp YoY)
At the start of 2019, growth returns to Madrid and the Mediterranean area, due to the dynamism of private consumption, domestic tourism and, to a lesser extent, exports of goods