Regional Analysis Spain
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Household savings increased significantly during the second quarter of 2020, reaching 24.4% of gross disposable income. That is more than double the previous high seen in 2009. There are several reasons for this.
It's difficult to talk about economic recovery right now. Health indicators continue to show a worrying deterioration. Thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises are worried about the negative effect that fear of infection and the restrictions imposed to reduce it are having on their turnover.
A smaller contraction in GDP is expected in 2020 (-11%), due to upward surprises in all components of demand, especially domestic demand. The improvement in foreign tourism in the second part of 2021 will allow for further growth in the island communities. In 2022, the boost from European funds will favor the economy.
The Spanish economy could have contracted by 11.0% in 2020 and grown by 5.5% in 2021 and 7.0% in 2022. GDP growth exceeded expectations in 3Q20, but the slowdown in the fourth quarter would have been intense. Moving forward, a significant acceleration is expected in the second half of 2021
This Working Paper describes the latest update of the sectoral module of the RegData FEDEA-BBVA database, in which the regional series of employment (employed and salaried), Gross Value Added (GVA) at current and constant prices and employee compensation in the main RegData module are disaggregated by sector.
26,400 jobs were created in December (16,000 swda) and unemployment rose by 36,800 (46,000 swda). In Q4, affiliation slowed down (1.1% t/t CVEC) and unemployment stagnated. The impact of the crisis is remarkable: -830,000 jobs and 800,000 unemployed.
Bill Gates is credited with the saying that short-term impact of technology is often overestimated but its long-term effects are underestimated. The pandemic isn´t the same as a technological change but it has had disruptive consequences,and going forward it´s unknown how long we´ll continue to feel the impact of all these.
Although we are still managing the health crisis with its continuous trickle of infections and deaths, the approval of vaccines against COVID-19 and their expected deployment over the coming months is an important ray of hope for our societies.