Regional Analysis Spain
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The economy of Andalusia grew by 2.4% in 2018 and will advance by 2.0% in 2019 and by 1.6% in 2020. This will add around 150,000 jobs in the biennium (almost 1 in 4 jobs in Spain), recovering to pre-crisis levels. However, the unemployment rate will still be 7.1 p.p. above the 2007 minimum
Social security affiliation fell by 53,100 people (2.3% YoY) and unemployment rose by 20,500 (-1.7% YoY). Excluding seasonal factors, there are signs of stability in the labor market, in figures less favorable than those of 2018: employment grew by 30,000 people and unemployment registered its fourth growth in 2019 (1,200)
The real estate market put an end to a turbulent 3Q19, characterized by high volatility due to the effects of the implementation of the Real Estate Credit Law. Sales lost traction in September, after the upturn in August, and price growth was similar to that of the previous quarter
The structure of the current Spanish pension scheme is essentially the same as when it was set up at the end of the 1960s. In the 50 years that have gone by since its creation, the only changes it has seen have been to its parameters.
It is no secret: employment has grown continuously in Spain since 2013. Social Security registrations have increased by 20% since employment began to recover — for every five people registered before, there are now almost six.
The economy of Madrid grew by 3.7% in 2018 and will advance by 2.6% in 2019 and 2.2% in 2020. Some 128,000 jobs will be created in the biennium, although the risks are numerous and some of them are more likely now. Employment will exceed pre-crisis levels by 1% by the end of the biennium
Catalonia's GDP is expected to increase by 1.8% in 2019 and by 1.6% in 2020. This will enable the creation of around 115,000 new jobs between the end of 2018 and 2020, and reduce the unemployment rate to 11.0%
In this Watch, the structural factors that allow us to explain the cyclical behavior of the Spanish economy during the first half of 2019 are evaluated, and the impact of the main changes affecting GDP.