Regional Analysis Spain
Regional Analysis Spain latest publications
The ranking in the growth of 2019 remains unchanged: Madrid, Murcia, Castilla-La Mancha and Navarra would have led the progress of the activity the previous year. Forward, the centre would continue to lead the dynamism.
After growing 1.9% in 2018, the economy of Asturias could have grown by 1.7% in 2019. It will advance by 1.2% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021, and will add around 3,000 jobs in the biennium. The average GDP pc annual growth rate will be 1.7%, 0.3 p.p. above the Spanish average, due to the worst regional demographic evolution
The labour market regained some of the momentum lost during the year. Despite the negative seasonality, EPA employment increased by 92,600 people (2.1% y/y) and the unemployment rate fell 0.1pp to 13.8%. On average, 451,600 jobs were created during the year (2.3% y/y) and the unemployment rate fell by 1.2pp to 14.1%
Labor productivity in Spain is counter-cyclical, unlike in the majority of developed economies. This phenomenon is mainly due to the poor functioning of the labor market. There is an urgent need to adopt reforms to boost sustained productivity growth
The Spanish economy is suffering a double impasse. Politically, although a government has just been formed, it is difficult to anticipate what support it will have for approving new general budgets and legislative initiatives that provide a new momentum for reform. Economically, GDP has slowed.
The slowdown of the Spanish economy could end in 2020. GDP growth will slow down to 1.6% in 2020, from 1.9% in 2019, and show a moderate acceleration in 2021 to 1.9% due to the slight improvement expected in the European economy
Social security affiliation rosed by 31,700 people in dec-19 (2.0% YoY) and unemployment fell by 34,600 (-1.2% YoY). Excluding seasonal factors, employment grew by 15,000 people and unemployment by 5,000. In 4Q19 the affiliation slightly advanced (0.4% t/t CVEC) and unemployment broke its downward trend (0.1% t/t CVEC)
The Spanish economy ends the second decade of the 21st century with a GDP growth rate close to its potential and an unemployment rate of 14.3%. During the last three quarters of 2019, GDP has grown at an annualized quarterly rate of 1.6%.