Regional Analysis Spain
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The GDP of the Balearic Islands would have fallen by 18.0% in 2020 and is expected to increase by 8.0% in 2021 and 11.6% in 2022. The economy in 2021 will go from less to more with the improvement of the international environment, European funds, the progress of vaccination and the relaxation of restrictions.
Greenhose Gas Emissions shows a high heterogeneity across countries. Spain has been lowering its absolute emissions and its intensity in the last years. This document analizes in detail available data for GHG emissions of Spanish Autonomous Communities (AC).
The Basque economy may have shrunk by 10.5% in 2020, and may grow 5.5% in 2021 and 7.5% in 2022. Public policies and the lower weight of social consumption softened the impact of COVID-19. Consumption, investment and exports will push the economy. With risks, European funds shall boost growth especially through 2022.
Andalusia's GDP may have fallen by 11.0% in 2020 and is expected to increase by 5.4% in 2021 and 7.0% in 2022. Consumption, investment and exports will boost the economy throughout 2021. With risks, the momentum of European funds will be more noticeable towards 2022.
The labor market will recover from the COVID-19 crisis, but the resolution of its structural weaknesses will still be pending, while it will have to face the challenges of digital transformation, the energy transition and aging. The 2050 Strategy addresses them and proposes a broad package of measures to overcome them.
The recovery in private consumption will gain momentum as vaccination progresses, the EU recovery package (NGEU) starts to boost demand and households consolidate the absorption of excess savings. Consumer spending will grow by 6.1% in 2021 and 6.8% in 2022.
Social Security affiliation grew by 211,900 people and unemployment fell by 129,400. BBVA Research estimates that seasonally adjusted employment advanced by 71,000 people and unemployment fell by 27,000. Although affiliation approached pre-crisis levels, there are 1,002,000 workers with limited activity.
At BBVA Research, we believe that the so-called Austrian backpack could help ensure compliance with the EC's recommendations. The main reason is that it would reduce the uncertainty surrounding dismissal costs and, with the right design, encourage open ended contracts while also favoring labor mobility.