BBVA Research

This presentation examines Spain’s structural productivity gap, linked to the small average size of firms and to lower levels of investment and human capital. Under these conditions, artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as a key lever, provided complementary reforms and investments accompany it.

The Colombian electricity system stands out for its renewable matrix, high coverage, and regional resilience. Demand is growing steadily and supply is gradually advancing, in a context where diversification of sources and thermal backup will be key to maintaining reliability.

Remittances are a key source of foreign currency in Latin American countries, although tighter migration policies in the United States will moderate their growth and their share of GDP. The effects will be limited in Argentina and more noticeable in Colombia and Peru, with a more gradual expansion path.

The INE's updated regional GDP estimates for 2024 do not introduce significant changes to the growth hierarchy, which, as noted in September, was led by Murcia and the island regions.

Growth and inflation have slowed under tighter monetary conditions, a weaker fiscal impulse, and a challenging global backdrop, supporting expectations of an imminent easing cycle. GDP is set to grow 2.2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with inflation likely ending this year at 4.4% and next year at 3.8%.

The economy continues to perform well. Domestic demand accelerated in the third quarter, driven by private spending. This positive momentum and pension funds withdrawals point to output growth reaching 3,3 % in 2025. A slight moderation is expected in 2026 amid electoral uncertainty, GDP growth easing to 3,1 %.

GDP growth will reach 2.9% in 2025 (0.1 pp less than forecast in October), while in 2026 and 2027 the expansion is expected to continue with increases of 2.4% (0.1 pp more than in October) and 2.0%, respectively. The outlook is positive, although significant structural challenges persist.

Domestic headwinds including housing market crash, overcapacity, weak sentiments take the place of tariff war to be the dominant factors for China’s growth slowdown.

In 2025, the automotive sector is accelerating its sales momentum, with strong growth in utility vehicles and in hybrid and electric models. Greater household purchasing power and a more appreciated exchange rate, among other supportive factors, sustain this trend and will keep driving sales in 2025 and 2026.

Argentina holds world-class mining potential. The development of lithium and copper, combined with the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), could increase production and multiply exports by five by 2032, consolidating the country's role in the global energy transition.

Private consumption is set to grow by 3.3% in 2025, two-tenths higher than in 2024, and by 2.5% in 2026, driven by expected increases in household disposable income and wealth. Durable goods and services will continue to lead the expansion in spending.