BBVA Research

GDP growth will reach 2.9% in 2025 (0.1 pp less than forecast in October), while in 2026 and 2027 the expansion is expected to continue with increases of 2.4% (0.1 pp more than in October) and 2.0%, respectively. The outlook is positive, although significant structural challenges persist.

Domestic headwinds including housing market crash, overcapacity, weak sentiments take the place of tariff war to be the dominant factors for China’s growth slowdown.

The global economy remains unstable but is faring better than expected. In Türkiye, we maintain our baseline with somewhat a restrictive policy mix in the short term; yet with a balance of risks evolving to a stickier inflation trend due to the prolonged process with more muted gains on expectations.

Revenues from the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are a fiscal resource available for climate action and the energy transition. By allocating 25% of the expected 2030 revenues to cleantech (€1.1–2.4 billion) and attracting private investment, Spain would strengthen its industrial capacity and competitiveness.

Argentina holds world-class mining potential. The development of lithium and copper, combined with the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), could increase production and multiply exports by five by 2032, consolidating the country's role in the global energy transition.

Financing in Mexico has been characterized by three main trends: i) the increase in resources allocated to companies; ii) the fade out of the accounting effect of the exchange rate on the balances of loan and deposit portfolios; and iii) the strengthening of retirement funds as the main source of domestic savings.

Private consumption is set to grow by 3.3% in 2025, two-tenths higher than in 2024, and by 2.5% in 2026, driven by expected increases in household disposable income and wealth. Durable goods and services will continue to lead the expansion in spending.