BBVA Research

As the trade war shock has faded, the recent data surprised the market to the downside as domestic risks take the place of external shock to become the main drag on growth in China.

The Colombian economy will grow by 2.5% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, driven by domestic demand while investment begins a gradual recovery. Sticky inflation and fiscal challenges will condition the pace of interest rate cuts by the Central Bank.

Our baseline scenario assumes the continuation of the restrictive policies prioritizing disinflation in the short term. Global financial volatility affecting demand for EM assets, Trump policies particularly impacting Europe, and increasing domestic unknowns are near term risks on the Turkish economy, keeping us cautious.

The IOSCO 2025 presentation examines how geopolitical tensions, institutional weakening, aging, climate change, and technological innovations (AI and quantum) interact, amplifying risks and shaping a more unstable global environment.

This edition of the QLMO analyzes labor market trends using data available through Q2 2025. It reviews the performance of key aggregate indicators and explores recent developments in the duration of employment relationships.

The Big Data Private Consumption Index recorded a YoY increase of 7,2% in August, reflecting a significant acceleration compared to the more moderate growth observed in the previous two months (2.3% y/y in July and 3.0% y/y in June).

In August, Social Security lost 199,300 contributors and unemployment rose by 21,900 due to seasonal factors. Once seasonally adjusted (SA), the number of contributors increased by 29,900 and the number of unemployed fell by 4,800. The share of temporary contracts in the General Regime stood at 13.7% (SA).

In July, remittances reached Mexico for 5,330 million, a 4.7% drop compared to the same month in 2024. From January to July 2025, remittances totaled $34.889 billion, a lower amount than what was received in 2024, and even lower than in 2023.

Private consumption has become Colombia’s key growth engine. Driven by employment, income, credit, and remittances, it is shifting toward services and entertainment, while demographic changes reshape household spending patterns for the years ahead.

The United States faces global uncertainty in terms of trade policy, with forecasts of inflation and interest rate cuts. At the same time, the Colombian economy is recovering, with consumption driving the recovery. Unemployment rates are low and informality is on the rise.