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Alejandro Neut
•PhD in economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
•Bachelor in engineering, Universidad de Chile     
•Economist for the Asia and Latin American Desks, Development Centre,  OECD
•Joined BBVA in 2003 and rejoined in 2013

Latest Publications

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Global Funds Outlook 4Q17 | Still sunny in Emerging Markets. Clouds in the horizon?

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In 4Q17, solid net inflows to Global Investment Funds (GIF) continued to decelerate, but only slightly backed by global factors: macro outlook, oil prices and subdued volatility. Inflows to GIF shall continue to cool down as the unwinding of central bank balance sheets starts draining liquidity off the markets. Our baseline scenario assumes a smooth normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English

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The impact of technological change and the future of employment

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This presentation provides a panoramic and historical perspective on the the effects of technical progress; it analyses the effects of the fourth industrial revolution; and talks about the different policies to regulate the changes of this technological and digital transformation.

Available in Spanish

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Global Funds Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Capital continued to flows toward Global Investment Funds (GIF), albeit at a slower pace, driven by common factors (high global liquidity, subdued US interest rates among others). Over the coming quarters, inflows to GIF shall cool down as the unwinding of central bank balance sheets starts draining liquidity. Our baseline scenario assumes a smooth normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English

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The internationalisation and digitalisation of the portuguese economy

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Dual economy in which many firms do not promote the accumulation of human capital,innovation and trade in international markets. The size of firms and its determinants, product market regulations and the environment for doing business are of paramount importance. All this in a more globalised world economy undergoing an unprecedented and disruptive technological revolution

Geographies:Portugal

Available in English

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Central Bank Digital Currencies: assessing implementation possibilities and impacts

Document Number 17/04

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Following advances in the distributed ledger technology, central banks are assessing the issuance of digital currency. There's a range of possible schemes to adopt depending on which features of cash to hold: universality, anonymity and non-yield bearing. We analyze opportunities and challenges of 4 key schemes, that support a strategy of gradual testing and implementation

Available in Spanish, English

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How long can the low interest rate environment last?

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The low interest rates in developed economies are a symptom with multiple causes, some structural and others cyclical, which taken together suggest we’ll see very gradual rate hikes. In fact, it could take up to a decade to see policy rates converge at around 3.5-4.0%, way below the 5% benchmark rate seen prior to the global crisis.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global prominence of China’s financial markets

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In recent months, financial turmoil in China has significantly hurt global financial markets. Yet the channel has been commercial rather than purely financial: turmoil in China has “signaled” risks to China’s economic outlook rather than “caused” global financial imbalances. That said, actual financial linkages are set to grow as China´s markets are liberalized.

Available in English

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Further easing measures favor unconventional measures over rate cuts

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The ECB cut rates to record lows, increased the size -and widened the scope - of its APP and introduced a new round of (attractive) TLTROs. The Staff revised its inflation projections significantly downwards, as expected. The ECB remains vigilant and ready to act if necessary, favoring further “unconventional measures” over (not-excluded) additional rate cuts.

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB, the focus is on Greece

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The ECB reiterates its focus on the full implementation of its measures and its readiness to do more, if needed. The APP proceeds smoothly, despite recent developments in financial markets. On Greece, the ECB increases the ELA to Greek banks by EUR900mn euros as “several positive things that have happened” On the euro, Mr Draghi wants decisive steps on further integration

Available in Spanish, English

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Monitoring ECB balance sheet expansion (June 2015)

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In June, the asset purchase programme was ahead of the set monthly target of EUR60bn, (EUR62.9bn). We still think that inviting speculation over an early withdrawal of stimuli would be both premature and risky, especially in a context where risks deriving not only from the situation in Greece but also from China are giving rise to a high degree of uncertainty.

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Minutes: 3 June meeting

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All ECB members agreed to follow the current monetary policy strategy, adding the need to look through recent volatility in financial markets. In particular, the minutes showed that the GC saw no need to consider any change in the current monetary policy stance, but it was willing to review or modify the ECB´s stance if the need arises.

Available in Spanish, English

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Monitoring ECB balance sheet expansion (May 2015)

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The purchase programme, which involves both public and private sector assets, beat the declared monthly target of EUR60bn in May (EUR63.1bn of assets acquired). In its latest monetary policy meeting, the ECB remained resolute about fully implementing the measures already set in train, actually commenting that further measures would be taken if called for.

Available in Spanish, English

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The ECB reaffirms its existing stance

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The Governing Council was unanimous on maintaining its prestated roadmap, “if anything, the central bank will actually add (new measures) to policy stance”. Macroeconomic projections remained mostly unchanged. Exit strategies were not discussed.

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Minutes: 15 April meeting

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ECB minutes of its 5 April meeting were released today. Governing Council (GC) members reaffirm their commitment to firmly and fully implement the ECB´s announced purchasing program. There was wide agreement that the APP is progressing smoothly and is having a positive impact. Some GC participants warned about the risk of growing complacency with fiscal reform.

Available in Spanish, English

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Monitoring ECB balance sheet expansion

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The ECB's asset purchase programme is running according to the target set of EUR60bn a month. The initial impact on the financial markets has been larger than expected. The forcefulness with which the programme was launched, as well as the resolute commitment which the ECB has subsequently reiterated, are key to achieving the desired effects.

Available in Spanish, English