Francisco Grippa is Principal Economist of BBVA Research in Peru. Francisco is in charge of a team focused on the macro assessment of the Peruvian economy.Francisco has previously been the Peruvian ViceMinister of SME and Industry, President of the Board at the Peruvian Research and Competitiveness Fund (FIDECOM), and Member of the Board at the Labour Training and Employment Promotion Fund (FONDOEMPLEO), the Innovation, Science, and Technology Fund (FINCYT), and the Commission for Promoting Peruvian Exports and Tourism (PROMPERÚ), among other similar positions. He has also worked leading the Peruvian Central Bank’s monetary policy department.He holds a MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science (London, UK), a MSc in Finance from the Graduate Programme in Economics, Finance, and Management at Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona, Spain), and a BA from Universidad del Pacífico (Lima, Peru). Francisco’s research includes macroeconomics issues such as monetary policy, inflation targeting, dollarisation, among others, and sectoral analysis.
Output would grow by 1,6% in 2023 and by 2,6% in 2024. Economic activity decline in the first quarter of the year and the deterioration of Coastal El Niño phenomenon forecasts, suggesting a more intense and long-lasting event (until early 2024), lead us to revise GDP growth downwards (-0,3pp this year and -0,4pp next).
The Central Bank Board (BCRP) decided to maintain in May the monetary policy rate at 7,75%, a decision that was widely expected.
Economic activity is expected to grow 1,9% in 2023, six tenth of a percentage point less than our early-December forecast. This revision considers the social upheaval at the beginning of the year and higher political uncertainty, more than offsetting a milder global activity slowdown. A rebound of 3,0% is expected in 2024.