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Francisco Grippa
Francisco Grippa

Principal Economist

Francisco Grippa is the Principal Economist at BBVA Research in Peru. He is in charge of a team focused on the macro assessment of the Peruvian economy. Besides, he is a lecturer at the Economics and Finance Faculty in Universidad del Pacífico.

 

Francisco has previously been the Peruvian ViceMinister of SME and Industry, President of the Board at the Peruvian Research and Competitiveness Fund (FIDECOM), and Member of the Board at the Labour Training and Employment Promotion Fund (FONDOEMPLEO), the Innovation, Science, and Technology Fund (FINCYT), and the Commission for Promoting Peruvian Exports and Tourism (PROMPERÚ), among other similar positions. He has also worked leading the Peruvian Central Bank’s monetary policy department.

 

He holds a MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science (London, UK), a MSc in Finance from the Graduate Programme in Economics, Finance, and Management at Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona, Spain), and a BA from Universidad del Pacífico (Lima, Peru). Francisco’s research includes macroeconomics issues such as monetary policy, inflation targeting, dollarisation, among others, and sectoral analysis.


Latest Publications

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Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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The economic outlook is improving in the second half of the year. The Peruvian economy will grow at around 2.5% yoy in the second half of the year (and at around the same rate for 2017 as a whole), with increased support from domestic demand. For next year, GDP will grow at close to 4% yoy. This forecast is subject to the fiscal stimulus.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

The economic outlook is improving in the second half of the year. The Peruvian economy will grow at around 2.5% yoy in the second half of the year (and at around the same rate for 2017 as a whole), with increased support from domestic demand. For next year, GDP will grow at close to 4% yoy. This forecast is subject to the fiscal stimulus.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

We project low growth this year with a rebound in 2018, driven by reconstruction and infrastructure spending.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

We project low growth this year with a rebound in 2018, driven by reconstruction and infrastructure spending.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

We have revised our growth projection for this year by a percentage point to 2.5%. This adjustment reflects the fact that the three local risks we indicated in our February report have finally materialised: the weather problems continued, the delay in the major infrastructure construction projects continued and finally, business confidence dropped even further.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

We have revised our growth projection for this year by a percentage point to 2.5%. This adjustment reflects the fact that the three local risks we indicated in our February report have finally materialised: the weather problems continued, the delay in the major infrastructure construction projects continued and finally, business confidence dropped even further.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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We have revised our growth projection downwards, from 4.1% to 3.5%. The delay in infrastructure construction, one of the main risk factors considered in the report that we published last quarter, materialised in early 2017.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016

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We estimate that the Peruvian economy will grow by about 3.9% in 2016 and by 4.1% in 2017 when infrastructure projects will provide support.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

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We stand by our GDP growth forecasts for the Peruvian economy of 3.6% in 2016 and 4.3% in 2017. Higher mining production and the implementation of large-scale infrastructure works will shore up the growth in GDP over the next few quarters.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Paraguay Economic Outlook First Half 2016

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Growth of around 3.0% in 2016 and 2017. Domestic demand, due to infrastructure projects, will be the main driver of growth. Lower depreciation of the currency but with episodes of volatility. Inflation will continue to be contained around the mid-range of the target. Central Bank would keep its policy monetary rate. Main risks: more pronounced slowdown in Brazil and China.

Units:

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru | Inflation continues to fall…

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The CPI rose 0.21% in May. During the month the upward impact of higher exchange rate, the increase in the cigarette excise tax, and higher oil prices were observed. Thus, the annual rate of inflation stood at 3.5%, and we anticipate that it will continue to moderate due to normalization of food prices and lower depreciation of currency.

Units:
Geographies:Peru

Available in Spanish

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Peru Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2016

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We continue anticipating that the Peruvian economy will grow 3.6% in 2016 and 4.3% in the following year. The main drivers of this growth will be increased mining production, particularly of copper due to major mines coming on-stream, and increased public and private sector capital expenditure on infrastructure projects.

Units:
Geographies:Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru | More benign inflation outlook leads the central bank to keep its rate on hold

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The Central Bank held in May the policy rate at 4,25%. The press release suggests that this decision was supported by a more benign inflation outlook and the recovery in output growth, more in line with its potential pace. We estimate that the policy rate will remain at its current level over the coming months.

Units:
Geographies:Peru

Available in Spanish

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Peru | Inflation surprised downwards and should tend to moderate from now on

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CPI rose 0,60%MoM in March due to seasonal factors and weather anomalies. With this result, the YoY inflation rate went down from 4,5% in February to 4,3%. We estimate that it has already peaked in the first quarter. This should give the central bank room to keep unchanged its policy rate in the coming months if expected inflation also moderates from now on.

Units:
Geographies:Peru

Available in Spanish

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Peru | More moderate output growth in January

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GDP grew by 3,4%YoY in January. Not too many changes with respect to last few months' story: strong primary sectors (Mining and Fishing), while sluggish non-primary ones, in particular Non-primary manufacturing and Construction. Available indicators and reasonable assumptions suggest that, considering 2016 is a leap-year, February’s output growth should be close to 6%YoY.

Units:
Geographies:Peru

Available in Spanish