Peru | Economic growth tends to recover after the April dip

Summary

GDP grew by 2,7 % year-on-year in May, exceeding both the market consensus (2,1 %) and April’s print (1,4 %). The non-primary component increased by 3,2 %, while the primary one once again declined, mining and fishing in particular.

Key points

• Key points:
• Non-primary activities grew by 3,2 % in May, with the construction sector standing out (+ 6,0 %). Some services also performed well, accommodation & restaurants and transportation among them with growth rates above 5 %, as well as commerce (+ 3,1 %), where auto sales once again showed a strong print.
• The primary component of GDP contracted by 0,3 % in May. A large part of this decline was explained by mining, due to shutdowns at some major units. This was compounded by the fishing sector, which fell again in May.
• Available economic activity indicators suggest that the year-on-year growth rate increased in June. Our preliminary estimate falls within a range of 3,5 % to 4,5 %. As a result, and considering official figures for April and May, our output growth forecast from a couple of months ago for 2Q25 has a downward bias.

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