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The United States has achieved something that seemed impossible a year ago: significantly lower inflation (from over 9% in the summer of 2022 to 3.5%) without triggering a rise in unemployment, currently at 3.8%.
Retail electricity prices are adjusted in response to fluctuations in wholesale markets, shaped by the regulatory policies of each country and, where relevant, consumer willingness to pay a premium to mitigate price volatility.
The average real wages of formal workers in Mexico have shown notable growth, accompanied by a significant improvement in workers' purchasing power, especially in the lowest income deciles, which indicates progress towards lower wage inequality.
Formal employment in Mexico showed null monthly variation in March 2024, reflecting a more pronounced slowdown than expected in the year's first quarter. In March, it grew below expectations, partly attributable to the effect of Easter.
After the local election results, we expect the maintenance of current economic policies with more aggressive tightening in the short term. Therefore, expected additional restrictive measures might generate downside risk on our short term infla…
The national unemployment rate in February 2024 was 11.7%, higher than the 11.4% in February 2023. On the year to February, employment grew 1.2% (260 thousand jobs), down from 2.5% (533 thousand jobs) in January 2024, continuing the trend of slowing annual job creation.
At the end of 2023 we find opposite results in the Real Estate market. Construction presents historical results, growth rates well above the average in different indicators. The housing market is contracting with figures as of November 2023. In both cases, we estimate that in 2024 both sectors will reverse the trends
Consumer prices rose by 3.16% (68.5% y/y) in March, lower than both our expectation and consensus (3.5% and 3.6%, respectively). We expect annual consumer inflation to reach 45% by 2024 end under the assumption of 3.5% GDP growth in 2024, gradu…
The German Bund 10Y term premium turned positive in the aftermath of the pandemic, boosted by the upward trend in the uncertainty surrounding inflation as well as spillover effects from a higher US term-premium. Furthermore, Euro Area growth un…
The world's attention in recent months has been focused on the decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), geopolitics—especially the conflict in the Middle East—and activity in China. Little attention is paid to Latam, and there is scarcely t…
The Central Bank (CBRT) surprised the markets and hiked the policy rate by 500 bps to 50%. They promised to tighten the stance further according to the inflation outlook and support the monetary transmission mechanism in case of unanticipated developments in credit growth and deposit rates.
Inflation moderated less than expected in the first two months of ‘24 constrained by the modest decline in services. Our supply bottlenecks indicators inched up in February 2024 but remain at very low levels.
