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U.S. tariffs reduced imports by 2% for every point of increase. However, global trade remained resilient as Chinese products were replaced by goods from Asian economies and Mexico, reconfiguring supply chains without managing to reduce the trade deficit.

The U.S. decision not to extend the USMCA confirms our baseline scenario that the agreement will remain in force. The USMCA will remain in force until 2036 unless all three parties agree to extend it.

Remittances accumulate four consecutive months of growth: February (+1.1%), March (+6.0%), April (+3.7%) and the most recent data for May (+3.8%). In the first five months of 2026, remittances totaled 25,287 million dollars, which represents an increase of 2.8% compared to the same period of 2025.

The Eurozone and the United States are facing inflationary pressures that extend beyond energy, forcing the ECB and the Fed to raise their inflation forecasts. The central banks are shifting their course with varying degrees of determination.

The debate over Europe lagging behind the US economy reveals that improvements in per capita income, based on current purchasing power parities, coexist with a lower capacity to purchase goods and services in the United States, which is inconsistent with full convergence.

The hurdle for additional easing is now considerably higher than it was earlier this year, while the possibility of future rate hikes can no longer be dismissed if inflation fails to resume its path toward target.

Despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the global economy is holding up better than expected, thanks to energy relief measures and the momentum from artificial intelligence. The outlook depends on trade reopening to prevent a rebound in prices.