Mexico | The economy shows dynamism in 3Q26

GDP grew 0.9% QoQ in 3Q26, with signs of stronger momentum in industry and wholesale trade. We introduce an upside bias to our growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

Key points

• Key points:
• Within the tertiary sector, the strongest contribution comes from wholesale trade, which has recorded double-digit annual growth since April (averaging 11.7% over April–August), accounting for more than half of the IGAE's annual growth in August.
• Gross fixed investment continues to consolidate its recovery, with cumulative growth of 1.7% YoY, driven by construction (4.1% YoY, cumulative); private consumption recorded cumulative growth of 2.1% YoY through July, driven by spending on imported goods (8.3% YoY, cumulative).
• Looking ahead, we expect economic momentum to continue, particularly in the industrial sector and wholesale trade, supported by growing demand for inputs across AI value chains in the U.S. and the cyclical recovery in investment. These factors introduce upside risks to our growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 (BBVA: 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively).

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