Published on Tuesday, July 11, 2023

Colombia | Inflation continues to ease, in June it stood at 12.13%

In June, monthly inflation was 0.30% and annual inflation was 12.13%, slightly below market analysts' expectations of 0.37% (according to Banco de la República's survey), falling for the third consecutive month.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Food inflation moderated its pace of decline, decreasing 134 bps from the previous month's figure to 14.3%. In this basket, negative trends continue to be seen in the inflation of the three sub-baskets.
  • Core inflation, on the other hand, continues to moderate its increases, rising by only 3 bps compared to May's figure, bringing it to 11.62%.
  • Within core inflation, upward pressures came from the basket of goods, which showed an annual change of 14.3%, 21 bps above May's figure, although this change is largely explained by base effects associated with the VAT-free day of June 2022.
  • The baskets of services and administered prices showed marginal decreases of 1 bps and 5 bps from the previous month, standing at 9.0% and 15.6%, respectively. Within the regulated items, fuels showed the highest upward pressure, followed by electricity and transport, while in services, rents and meals at the table and prepared outside the home continue to show pressure
  • At BBVA Research we expect core inflation to be peaking, while food inflation will continue to moderate, so that total inflation will remain on a downward path in the second half of 2023.

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