Global | AI and technological progress in real tim: a new thermometer for the economy

Summary

Artificial intelligence is driving a paradigm shift in science and the economy. BBVA Research proposes tracking innovation through preprints, showing how AI is displacing physics on ArXiv and becoming a central engine, with opportunities and risks that require responsible policies.

Key points

• Key points:
• Traditional indicators (patents, R&D spending, scientific employment) lag behind, so BBVA Research suggests using ArXiv preprints to monitor innovation almost in real time.
• The analysis reveals a paradigm shift: computer science has grown from less than 10% of publications in 2010 to half in 2025, with AI accounting for 70% of them.
• Two milestones mark its rise: in 2014, the shift toward machine learning and computer vision; in 2022, the launch of ChatGPT, which popularized generative AI and triggered a surge of research in foundation models, multimodal tools, and autonomous agents.
• AI is transforming science, the economy, and society, with applications across multiple fields, with impact on productivity, employment, and investment, as well as regulatory challenges to ensure responsible, inclusive, and secure development.

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