July 19, 2019
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This week, markets turned increasingly optimistic about the potential for more aggressive pre-emptive easing by major central banks. U.S. - China trade talks seem to be stalling once again, while both U.S. economic data and company earnings released this week were mixed, and European data came in softer.
The slow progress in the initial trade demands of U.S and China is raising doubts as to whether they will be able to overcome their much deeper differences. Bloomberg reported that the ECB is considering modifying its inflation target to adapt it to the post-crisis era.
July 18, 2019
Global | Updated forecasts: World growth to soft land, amid trade tensions and stimulus
Global growth continues in a smooth downward path, led by the weakness of the industrial sector and exports due to trade tensions. Persistent low inflation led central banks to reassess their monetary policy stance. We revised downward our world GDP forecast 0.1pp to 3.3% for 2019 and 2020, with strongly downward risks
The International Monetary Fund has released its annual External Sector Report and it focuses on the need to avoid policies that distort trade. Sovereign treasury yields slipped after Fed officials reinforced expectations that they would cut interest rates this month.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% MoM in June, the fourth consecutive month of rises and a sign of economic robustness, according to data released by the Department of Commerce. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points in July.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported on Monday that the GDP of China increased 6.2% in the second quarter of 2019. This growth of the economy is in line with what analysts predicted and represents the slowest rate of expansion since 1992Q1. However, its quarter on quarter reading of 1.6% was ahead of forecasts.
The announcement of the launch of Libra, the digital currency that Facebook plans to implement, has sparked interest, concern and, above all, great uncertainty about its viability as a business and its financial and social impact.