Publications

Applying the methodology in Reifschneider and Wilcox (2022), an econometric regression was estimated using as explanatory factors four lags of annualized quarterly inflation and the unemployment gap. The objective was to estimate inflation persistence and the coefficient of the Phillips curve.

This paper presents a methodological framework to quantify the economic impact of natural disasters. It estimates a damage function and measures employment effects using a dynamic spatial model. The 2024 DANA in Valencia validates the approach and highlights the importance of both location and compensation mechanisms.

The document summarizes the presentation delivered at the European Investment Bank (EIB) on European defense spending, analyzed from a geopolitical perspective and from an economic standpoint, presenting the estimated fiscal multipliers of defense expenditure for Europe (García-Serrador, Sarasa-Flores, and Ulloa, 2025).

locproj estimates linear and nonlinear Impulse Response Functions (IRF) based on the local projections methodology first proposed(LP) by Jordà (2005). The procedure allows for the easy implementation of several options used in the growing literature of LP.

This paper delivers the first comprehensive estimate of the dynamic fiscal multiplier of defence spending for the EU-27 by exploiting exogenous accrual-based government defence outlays and a combination of linear and non-linear Local Projection methods.

The impact of tariffs is computed through the calculation of effective tariffs under different scenarios and simulations based on distinct methodologies. If the current tariffs remain broadly unchanged, global growth could initially fall between 0.2pp and 0.5pp, and potentially more over the medium term.

NGFS’s new five-year climate scenarios help gauge near-term transition and physical risks, adding compound-hazard modelling and macro-financial feedbacks, but they retain some outdated narratives and overlook recent policy decoupling, limiting realism.