Global | What impact have Trump's tariffs had on imports?

U.S. tariffs increased rapidly to historically high levels in the first half of last year. The average tariff applied to goods imported by American businesses and households went from around 2% to just over 10% in mid-2025, according to customs data published by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC).

Despite warnings from economists and concerns raised by businesses and consumers regarding the potential impact of the Trump administration's protectionist measures, global trade has grown strongly since then.

Likewise, U.S. tariffs gradually decreased during the second half of 2025 and the beginning of this year, especially after the U.S. Supreme Court declared reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl-linked tariffs illegal—the main mechanism used by the U.S. administration to impose specific levies on certain countries. As a result, and despite the fact that the revoked tariffs were immediately replaced by a universal 10% tariff, the average tariff fell to 6.7% in April of this year, the latest available data.

In this context, and with the focus shifting to other issues—such as the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on global growth, the undermining of the Federal Reserve's independence, or the conflict in Iran—the perception has spread that Trump's tariffs have had little to no effect on the global economy and, in particular, on the U.S. economy.

A recent analysis by BBVA Research, consistent with evidence provided by other studies, challenges this perception and shows that the tariffs themselves have had a significant impact on trade flows, although they have been offset by other factors.

Analyzing the evolution of U.S. imports by sector and country of origin before and after the sharp increase in tariffs, it is estimated that exports to the United States decreased by around 2% for every percentage point increase in the tariff. Thus, a seven-percentage-point increase—the average increase recorded over the last twelve months—implies a drop of nearly 14% in U.S. imports.

The study also shows that, despite the negative impact of tariffs, U.S. imports are trending positively thanks to other factors. These offsetting elements are especially visible in a group of Asian economies that includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, India, and Taiwan. This highlights their ability to adapt to protectionist measures and replace part of Chinese exports, which are the most directly harmed by Trump's trade policy.

At the sector level, the dynamism of AI-linked exports stands out. Increasing U.S. demand is boosting imports of various products manufactured in the aforementioned Asian economies—such as semiconductors from Taiwan—as well as from other countries, like Mexico. In contrast, imports of AI-linked goods from China, which are generally subject to higher tariffs, are plummeting.

Additionally, there is evidence that the effect of new tariff increases diminishes as the tariff rises. Raising the tariff by ten percentage points reduces imports by around 3% per percentage point, while a twenty-percentage-point increase has a marginal effect of just 1.5%.

Therefore, it can be stated that Trump's tariffs are not only reducing U.S. imports, but they are also reshaping their composition, increasing reliance on countries and sectors relatively less affected by protectionist measures.

Finally, it should be noted that the drop in imports does not guarantee an improvement in the U.S. trade deficit. It is highly likely that protectionist measures and the associated higher costs will end up affecting U.S. exports as well, preventing a reduction in the current account deficit—one of the main objectives of Trump's trade policy. Both recent empirical evidence and economic theory point in that direction.