Global | The Impact of 2025 Trump Tariffs on US Imports

Summary

We estimate the impact of the 2025 U.S. tariff increases by comparing sector- and country-level U.S. imports before and after their implementation, finding that exports to the United States declined by about 2% for every percentage-point increase in the tariff rate.

Key points

• Key points:
• We analyze the impact of the tariffs announced by the Trump administration since the beginning of 2025 on U.S. imports using country- and sector-level data.
• Tariffs are reducing US imports, even if their effects are being offset by other factors, such as resilient US growth supported by AI adoption and fiscal stimulus.
• Tariffs are also contributing to a reconfiguration of trade patterns, with the United States reducing its reliance on the sectors and countries most exposed to tariff increases.
• The estimations suggest that a 1 pp point increase in US tariffs reduces imports by around 2%. Moreover, evidence provided in this analysis suggest that once tariffs have already increased substantially, further tariff increases have a progressively smaller impact on imports.

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