Publications

We have revised our 2026 growth forecast upward to 1.4% (from 1.2% before); we anticipate that the gradual recovery of domestic demand will sustain the pace of expansion. Following a weak 2025, formal employment is beginning to improve. We expect core inflation to resume its downward trend in the second quarter of the year.

The rise of extortion in Peru is analyzed as an efficient criminal market: high profits, near-total impunity, and low opportunity costs for criminals. This phenomenon, driven by informality and institutional weakness, negatively impacts the national economy by 3.1% of GDP.

Colombia’s economy will grow 2.6% in 2026, ease to 2.3% in 2027, and rebound to 3.1% in 2028. The 2027 slowdown will be temporary as growth shifts from public to private-sector support, which will strengthen in 2028. Fiscal imbalances and inflation remain the key challenges ahead.

Cantabria’s economy is expected to maintain solid growth in 2026–2027, supported by employment, consumption, a recovery in exports, and expansionary fiscal policy. Global economic conditions will continue to weigh on industry and investment, while challenges related to productivity, housing, and labour supply persist.

In this edition of the QLMO, we analyse labour market developments based on data available through Q2 2026. We take stock of the main aggregate indicators and examine occupational exposure to generative AI, as well as its relationship with the occupational structure of employment and labour market entry.

The economy of La Rioja will maintain solid growth. GDP would grow by 1.8% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, supported by employment, consumption, and investment, but conditioned by industrial weakness, exports, and a more adverse external environment.

Social Security affiliation fell by 162,800 people and unemployment grew by 44,400. Adjusted for seasonality, an estimated rebound of 74,000 contributors and 10,500 unemployed is estimated. The extraordinary regularization of immigrants may have added 211,000 foreign affiliates and 64,900 unemployed up to August.