Publications

In 2024, the GDP of the Basque Country could have grown by 2.4%, and is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. Going forward, the evolution of activity will be marked by high economic and tariff policy uncertainty and the slow recovery in Europe.

Four years after the last labour reform, the rate of temporary employment in the Spanish labour market has unquestionably fallen. Yet, there is still a high rate of labor turnover and fairly heavy transitions from employment to unemployment.

Social Security affiliation grew by 195,700 people, and unemployment fell by 57,800. After seasonal adjustment (swda), it is estimated that the number of contributors increased by 34,000, and the unemployed decreased by 15,000. The proportion of temporary workers enrolled in the General Regime moderated to 13.5% swda.

According to the latest Quarterly Labor Market Observatory, published by BBVA Research and FEDEA, Spain's labor market continues to exhibit strong job creation, although persistent imbalances necessitate structural reforms. Employment growth must translate into greater productivity and equity.

Economic growth in Spain has been based on extensive factors (which may be temporary): incorporating more people into the labor market has been decisive. In contrast, productivity (the intensive and unlimited factor of growth) has yet to take off.

This edition of the OTMT examines labor market trends based on data available through Q1 2025. It reviews the main aggregate indicators and analyzes recent labor market flows, with a focus on closing gender gaps.

The observatory analyzes the cyclical behavior of GDP and exports in Spain up to the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a negative gap in GDP per working age population (WAP) compared to its trend level (-0.9 pp), although its growth slightly exceeds the historical trend.

The images of the floods that hit Valencia last October are still fresh in the collective memory. BBVA Research has developed an analytical framework to make the most of the available information and quantitatively assess both the impact and recovery after a climate disaster.