Microeconomics latest publications
Despite the robust measures implemented by the ECB, the EU, the Spanish government and public authorities, as well as the credit boost of the banking system, which have all prevented a much worse scenario, several quarters of growth will be needed for activity to catch up to the levels at the end of 2019.
The 2020 presidential election will be highly influenced by the health crisis, the economic recession, polarization and microtargeting. Based on polling data and in-house models, the Democrats are the odds-on-favorite to win the Presidency and the House, and could possibly flip the Senate.
The unprecedented increase in unemployment, large-scale transition to work from home, and lower activity in many face-to-face service industries are leading to demand destruction, higher vacancy rates and rent declines in the Commercial Real Estate (CRE) sector.
The drop in household spending is unprecedented. BBVA's credit card spending data went from an increase of around 10% in Catalonia before the state of alarm to a drop of almost 60% following its implementation.
The health crisis is causing an unprecedented collapse in consumption. Spending on durable goods loses in three months what it has regained in seven years. The decline in vehicle purchase intentions anticipates a significant contraction in demand in 2020, which will rebound in 2021.
Since it became clear that the COVID-19 epidemic was going to significantly impact Mexico, we have heard countless voices calling for fiscal support to be given to companies to help them navigate the emergency. I support that idea.
The headwinds from declining oil demand and increasing supply will delay the recovery of the Texas economy. Consequently, we expect Texas GDP to decline between -3.7% and -6.9% in 2020, that is, worse than the U.S. average. This would mark the worst recession since at least 1978.
Services slow down and industry falls in 2019. Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast, USMCA will boost Bajío and Norte.