Mexico | Regional Sectoral Outlook. First Half 2025

Summary

At the end of 2024, the Mexican economy's GDP grew by 1.5%, primarily driven by the Services sector, which experienced a 2.3% increase. Notably, Professional Services, Transportation, and Retail emerged as the key sectors contributing significantly to this economic growth.

Key points

• Key points:
• The primary GDP declined by 2.3%, while the GDP of secondary activities remained nearly unchanged, with a slight increase of 0.2%.
• The states with the most significant growth were Mexico City (1.8%), Baja California Sur (1.5%), and Quintana Roo (1.4%), driven by Trade and Tourism. Completing flagship projects such as the Mayan Train and "Dos Bocas" refinery impacted employment and public jobs in southern states.
• We estimate a supply network to analyze the economic relationship between Nuevo León and Texas. In this network, the Transportation Equipment sector leads in intermediate demand and serves as a central hub for industrial activity. It effectively integrates basic, heavy, and technological industries.
• The Mexican automotive sector experienced another positive year in 2024. The GDP of Transportation Equipment grew by 1.3%, and vehicle production increased by 5.6% annually.
• The rollout of 5G is likely to attract foreign direct investment in key sectors like automotive, electronics, and data centers. A comprehensive strategy that includes radio spectrum auctions, promoting private networks, and expanding energy and telecommunications infrastructure is essential.

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