Regional & Urban Economics
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According to BBVA credit card spending data, tourist spending made by Spaniards remained 4% above the 2019 records in December (5% in November and 77% y / y). If spending by Spaniards abroad is excluded, the advance stood at 11% (14% in November and 71% in y / y).
The economy of the Basque Country, although showing a recovery, is less dynamic than expected last spring. GDP growth in 2022 will be somewhat higher than in 2021, around 5.5%, and by the end of 2022 there might be a return to the pre-crisis level of activity.
The INE has published the first estimate of GDP growth in 2020 by autonomous communities in Spain. The results show that the growth hierarchy was in line with what was pointed out by BBVA Research, which anticipated greater strength in Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha and greater weakness in the isles and tourist regions.
Cantabria's GDP could grow by 5.9% in 2021 and 5.4% in 2022. If the forecasts are met, Cantabria will be the region that recovers the fastest to the pre-crisis level of activity and some 15,000 new jobs would be created between 2020 and 2022. There is a downward bias on these forecasts.
December 9, 2021
Spain | Impact of COVID-19 on consumption in real time and high definition in Nov-21
Card spending in November was 40% higher than in the same month of 2019, in line with what happened in October (49% YoY). The upturn in face-to-face transactions with foreign cards and online transactions with Spanish cards offset the lower advance in face-to-face consumption with Spanish cards.
Though 2022 should be a better year for GDP growth in the Spanish economy than 2021, the current outlook is also far more uncertain than it was a year ago, due to the appearance of new risks and an increase in existing ones — making forecasts even more volatile.
Galicia's GDP could grow by 5.6% in 2021 and 5.4% in 2022. If the forecasts are met, Galicia will be one of the regions that recovers the pre-crisis level of activity the fastest and some 33,000 new jobs would be created between 2020 and 2022. There is a downward bias on these forecasts.
The GDP of Andalusia could grow by 5.5% in 2021 but with a downward bias due to the advance estimate of the Quarterly Accounts. In 2022, regional GDP growth could reach 5.2%. If the forecasts are met, Andalusia would create, on average for the year, some 200,000 new jobs between 2020 and 2022.