Publications

The El Niño phenomenon in Colombia, with a probability close to 90% by September 2026, would bring drought conditions and higher temperatures. This climate shock would affect food supply and increase electricity generation costs, leading to temporary inflationary pressures in the economy.

The automotive market recovered supported by improved affordability, credit conditions, and lower exchange rate distortions. However, local production and the external sector still face structural constraints, limiting the sustainability of growth over the medium term.

The energy transition is reducing Europe's exposure to gas. In Spain, the strong expansion of renewables has helped contain wholesale prices, but system costs have prevented this decline from being fully passed on to consumers.

Increased defense spending could provide a significant boost to economic activity, with ripple effects across multiple sectors, including the metals industry, machinery, and telecommunications services.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a general-purpose technology that will transform the economy and employment. It drives productivity and innovation by combining automation and complementarity. Its ultimate impact will depend on adoption, human capital, and regulation.

This year, the trade agreement between Mexico, the United States, and Canada (USMCA) enters its review process. It is worth recalling that the agreement is in force until 2036, but it includes a review mechanism beginning July 1 that could lead to different scenarios.

On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6–3 decision, ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to unilaterally impose broad-based tariffs. The decision struck down most “reciprocal” and emergency tariffs.