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This first rate cut marks the start of a long and gradual easing cycle that will most likely keep the monetary policy stance restrictive throughout this year and next even if Banxico cuts the policy rate without skipping any meeting in the remainder of the year and in 2025.
Banxico’s board had already signaled that a rate cut next week was likely. We think that is a done deal following this month’s inflation prints. We expect Banxico to cut the policy rate by 25 bps, to 11.00%. The focus will be on the signals about the upcoming rate-cut cycle.
This Agenda presents the 2024 dissemination schedule for economic indicators and relevant monetary policy events in Mexico and the US; dates of important events such as the meetings of various relevant international entities such as: World Econ…
A key change in the forward guidance signals that Banxico is getting ready to start a rate cut cycle as “in the next monetary policy meetings, it will assess, depending on available information, the possibility of adjusting the reference rate.”
Banxico is set to hold the policy rate at 11.25% at this meeting amid core services inflation stickiness, but will likely continue to pave the way to cut it as soon as in the following meeting in March.
Although we continue to think that Banxico should not skip rate cuts at any meetings next year, its cautiousness, hawkishness, and recent hints suggest that consecutive rate cuts are unlikely at the start of the gradual easing cycle.
After signaling in September that the policy rate was set to remain unchanged “for an extended period,” Banxico now says that it must be kept unchanged “for some time.”
Although we continue to expect the beginning of a rate cut cycle in 1Q24, Banxico’s cautiousness and hawkishness are significantly tilting the risks towards a further delay in the start of this cycle.
The central bank closed the door for the start of an easing cycle in the short term, as it continued to convey its intention to keep the policy rate unchanged “at its current level for an extended period.”
Banxico will likely remain backward-looking in the short term and keep its policy rate steady for at least this month’s meeting and the following two in 4Q23.
The Governance Board did not send any signal about a possible start of a rate cut cycle in coming meetings and continued to signal its intention to keep the policy rate unchanged “at its current level for an extended period.”
Banxico should start a rate cut cycle in 4Q to avoid a further tightening of the monetary policy stance. Some hints about the roadmap for the rate cut cycle will be useful, but seem unlikely in the short term.
