Banxico latest publications
In our view, the start of the easing cycle is likely to come later than warranted. Banxico remained overly hawkish in its quarterly inflation report (yesterday) and in the minutes of the last meeting (16 May) released today.
The CNBV publishes a new financial education indicator. The dynamism in private sector credit in 1Q19 reflects moderation in economic activity. Trade Tensions between the USA and China Increase Risks for Global Growth.
As widely expected, Banxico left the monetary policy rate unchanged at 8.25%. The decision was unanimous, as we anticipated. The wording and tone of the statement remained hawkish and was little changed from the previous one (March 28). As we anticipated, the hawkish tone continues to signal a cautious approach.
The 25bp hike to 8.25% would be consistent with Banxico’s forward guidance and justified given core inflation’s stickiness to the downside and concerns on inflationary expectations.
We expect Banxico to hold rates steady (at 7.50%) next Thursday. As we expected, disinflation pressures are taking hold and inflation is set to fall further; the inflation outlook improvement warrants a more dovish tone. We think Banxico is likely to signal a pause in the near-term. We expect Banxico to begin an easing cycl…
The drop in inflation was broad-based and broadly in line with expectations. Disinflation pressures seem to be taking hold. Inflation set to fall turther; Banxico will likely keep rates on hold next month (12 Apr).
The most recent inflation figure, corresponding to the first half of November, surprised on the upside. After falling in September and October, headline inflation showed an upturn from 6.4% to 6.6%. This increases the likelihood that the Banco de México will increase its monetary policy rate as a preventive measure