November 12, 2019
Banxico latest publications
A 50bp rate cut would mark the beginning of a long overdue easing cycle.
There is still plenty of room to cut rates; we expect at least 50bp of additional easing by year-end.
September 25, 2019
Banxico will cut 25bp their rate on Thursday and on each of the remaining meetings in 2019
Given softer inflation and easing inflation risks an easing cycle has further to run.
August 12, 2019
Rate cut is not off the table, but we expect Banxico to hold rates steady one more meeting
Banxico will likely strike a dovish tone to signal that an easing cycle is about to start.
Update of financial savings and financing indicators in Mexico. Credit limit raised by INFONAVIT. Market performance supported by expected interest rate cuts. Reports by Sociedades de Información Crediticia (Credit bureaus). Information received by SIC from financial institutions.
Mortgage lending increased, with higher average amounts and a slight increase in the interest rate. In 2018, payroll loans slowed their growth rate. The Financial System Stability Council (CESF) updates its risk balance. High concentration of demand for bank mortgage loans.
In our view, the start of the easing cycle is likely to come later than warranted. Banxico remained overly hawkish in its quarterly inflation report (yesterday) and in the minutes of the last meeting (16 May) released today.