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Banxico latest publications

August 13, 2020

Banxico cuts 50bp to 4.50%; dovish tone suggests the easing cycle has legs

A notably dovish tone alongside a widening negative output gap backdrop points to further cuts in line with our view. • Banxico strikes again a remarkably and warranted dovish tone.

August 11, 2020

Banxico will cut its policy rate 50bp to 4.50%

We are sticking with 50bp cuts in the policy rate in each of the 2020 remaining scheduled meetings (to 3.00%). Forward guidance is unlikely but we expect Banxico to remain dovish and to brush aside the recent temporary and supply-driven inflation increase.

July 31, 2020

Banxico has the space to further relax monetary policy

Since the arrival of the coronavirus to Mexico, Banxico has reduced the monetary policy rate by 2 percentage points, bringing it from 7% to the current level of 5%. The central bank can still lower it by at least another two percentage points and bring it down to 3% without posing a risk for inflation.

July 2, 2020

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. June 2020

The liquidation process of Banco Ahorro Famsa begins. Consumer loans are no longer driving total private sector financing. Bank deposits reverse the weakness shown since the second half of 2019.

July 1, 2020

Mexico | From 320 to 380 million dollars of additional remittances due to "Mother's Day"

Remittances to Mexico are unstoppable, despite the difficult economic conditions due to the Covid-19 crisis, 3,379 million USD reached Mexico, + 3.0% compared to the same month last year. In real terms, due to the exchange rate depreciation, they grew 23.8%.

June 25, 2020

Banxico surprisingly and adequately strikes a dovish tone

Banxico cut the policy rate by 50 bp to 5.0% and surprisingly made significant dovish tweaks to the wording of the statement.

June 23, 2020

Mexico | Easing cycle will continue, but Banxico will remain cautious

Yet, we continue to expect Banxico to cut the policy rate until it reaches c. 0% real levels by year-end ie, 3.0% to 3.5%. The Board’s concerns on the ER should have eased in the intermeeting period.

June 4, 2020

Mexico | May inflation forecast: temporary jump in inflation

We expect headline inflation to increase 0.58% MoM in May, thereby accelerating to 3.04% YoY from 2.15% in April. We anticipate a 0.36% MoM core inflation increase (3.71% YoY, up from 3.50% in April).