Publications and economic news

October inflation in Argentina was 2.2% m/m, exceeding expectations. However, core inflation (1.5%) hit a 15-month low, confirming the disinflation trend. The 2026 forecast was revised up from 29.5% to 31%.

The Big Data consumption indicator in Spain fell by 1.5% year-on-year in the first week of November, reversing the previous rebound. Heterogeneity persists across categories, with Insurance and finance (+9.6%) rising and Other goods and services (-8.0%) falling. Disparate results are seen at a regional level.

Trump says major US strikes on Iran are unlikely for now. US-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks begin in Abu Dhabi. European officials press for a role in Ukraine negotiations

Private consumption in Peru, measured by the Big Data Index, grew 9.0% year-on-year in October, a slight moderation from September. This progress is supported by credit growth and a robust labor market, although it is dampened by the erosion of purchasing power due to inflation (5.3%).

In a split 3-2 decision, Banxico unexpectedly cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 6.25%. The upcoming minutes may shed light on Banxico’s perceived macroeconomic benefits of this unexpected 25bp adjustment.

The consumption indicator continues the improvement started in mid-October, confirming a shift from the downward trend previously observed across different sectors and regions.

We expect Banxico to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% this week. 3Q GDP and core inflation data for the first half of October challenged September’s dovish minutes, and weakened the case for further easing.