Publications

Mexico has made progress in achieving macroeconomic stability and improving labor conditions, yet it still faces its biggest structural challenge: an economy that grows without boosting productivity. Informality and the lack of investment in innovation and human capital keep the country trapped in low growth.

The advance of the regional GDP of 2024 published today by the INE is in line with the estimates of BBVA Research, which expected the growth to be led by Murcia and the island regions.

The United States faces global uncertainty in terms of trade policy, with forecasts of inflation and interest rate cuts. At the same time, the Colombian economy is recovering, with consumption driving the recovery. Unemployment rates are low and informality is on the rise.

Hard data confirmed a soft landing in 2Q25, while early 3Q25 indicators still signal weakness in activity. We maintain our 2025 GDP forecast at 3.5% for now, though risks are slightly tilted to the downside.

Colombia’s GDP grew 2.7% in Q1 2025, driven by consumption (76.7% of GDP), while investment remains weak, especially in housing and infrastructure. The key challenge is boosting investment to ensure sustainable growth.

Colombia’s economy grew 2.7% y/y in Q1 2025, led by household consumption. Investment weakened and sectors showed mixed results. Growth is projected at around 2.5% in 2025, with resilient domestic demand but ongoing challenges in investment and the external environment.

GDP grew 1.7% in 2024, led by domestic demand (+2.2%). Private consumption (1.6%) was driven by a rebound in durable goods and services, while fixed investment (3.0%) grew due to machinery, equipment, and civil works. In 2025, growth is expected at 2.5%, with better financial conditions but fiscal and global risks.

On Monday, February 3, the heads of state of Mexico and the US reached an agreement to put on hold for a month the imposition of tariffs that the White House pretended to apply to imports coming from Mexico.