Publications

Colombia’s economy will grow 2.6% in 2026, ease to 2.3% in 2027, and rebound to 3.1% in 2028. The 2027 slowdown will be temporary as growth shifts from public to private-sector support, which will strengthen in 2028. Fiscal imbalances and inflation remain the key challenges ahead.

The report analyzes the undervaluation issue of the RMB. Based on the MB and BEER models, it concludes that while there indeed exists periods of undervaluation, its degree of undervaluation is significantly lower than often claimed.

In 2026, the dollar reversed its initial weakness, strengthening on expectations of a more hawkish Fed, tensions in the Middle East, and capital flows into the U.S. driven by the AI boom.

The Central Bank of Colombia kept the policy rate at 12% in a split decision. Additionally, a reserve accumulation program was announced.

Growth is likely to be stronger than previously expected in 2026 and weaker in 2027, but should remain close to 2%. Higher inflation, around 5% in 2H26, driven mainly by the global energy shock, will constrain the scope for further monetary easing, although additional Selic cuts remain likely.

The significant appreciation of the Mexican peso over the past 12 months has supported domestic consumption and the performance of the services sector; however, it has also generated important pressures on export-oriented manufacturing and domestic suppliers operating with low profit margins.

Michoacan and Guanajuato remain tied as the main recipient states, with USD 1,249 million each in Q1 2026. The main U.S. states of residence of Mexican migrants increased their remittance outflows: California (+6.2%) and Texas (+2.0%).