Publications

The economic recovery and the good financial context, within a framework of fiscal balance and monetary discipline, show that the worst of the crisis is over. Society maintains its support for the government, giving it room to address the challenges of fiscal balance sustainability and FX market flexibilization.

Growth will be around 3% for the third consecutive year in 2024, but a slowdown ahead is likely, driven by a less supportive global environment and higher-than-anticipated SELIC rates. The balance of risks has recently worsened, reflecting global factors and rising concerns over fiscal imbalances.

GDP will grow 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2025. Private spending will gain traction in the coming quarters, supported by more favourable financial conditions, the impact of private pension funds withdrawals, and the beginning of construction of some infrastructure projects, while public spending will moderate.

Large fluctuations in the USD/MXN exchange rate impact Mexican migrants' decisions on the amount to remit. In August, the peso depreciated 5.4%, which boosted a 9.3% growth in remittances to Mexico in dollars and an increase converted into pesos of 17.0% in real terms.

The weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits continued to decelerate in the first week of September from 0.6% to 0.2% due to commercial credits in the overall sector and consumer credits of private banks, as has been happening since mid-August.

Remittances have been volatile over the past five months. Increases have been reported in two of them (April and June, even months) and declines in three months (March, May and July, odd months). In August, the peso depreciated 5.4%, so the next remittance report is expected to show growth.

Mexico's dependence on remittances reached a maximum of 4.0% of GDP in 2022. It is estimated that remittances would represent 3.5% of GDP in 2023 and by 2024 they will reach 3.7%. The appreciation of the Mexican peso (MXN) against the US dollar (USD) has relatively reduced Mexico's dependence on these resources.

Javier Milei will be the new president of Argentina. He takes office with the challenge of correcting strong imbalances in the fiscal, monetary and exchange rate fronts. The adjustment of spending and changes in relative prices will lead to an acceleration of inflation and further contraction of GDP in the short term.