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With a better than expected 2022, Argentina will face a complex 2023, with a drop in the level of activity and high inflation that will lead to a stagflation scenario. The main challenges will be the rollover of debt in the local market for challenging amounts and the vulnerability of the FX rate scheme.

The Current Account of the BoP includes the trade balance and the net dividend and interest payments abroad. A current account deficit implies that the country is a net debtor to the rest of the world. An econometric model is used to estimate the structural Current Account balance of Argentina and its long-term determinants

The deviations from the targets agreed with the IMF triggered a deterioration of expectations and the economic situation, deepened by political tensions. Economic activity will slow down more than expected in the coming quarters.

At the time of writing this article, the exchange rate is 19.5 pesos per dollar; a remarkable level considering that just last November its value was 21.9 pesos per dollar (an appreciation of more than 10%).

The government reached an enforceable agreement with the IMF, avoiding a default scenario. This is good news for Argentina, but its gradual approach does not change the overall macroeconomic scenario, nor does the absence of structural reforms …

Taking into account a less favorable external scenario, we have revised downwards the growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, from 2.3% to 2.0% in the first case and from 3.0% to 2.8% in the second.

We raised our GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 7.5%, but we do not expect a dynamic performance in the coming two years (average annual growth: 2%). The key question is whether that will be a result of the correction of imbalances or due to a postponement of them. An agreement with the IMF would shed light on this issue.

We adjusted our 2021 economic growth forecast from 7% to 6.5%. This year will be notably marked by the midterm elections. The macroeconomic performance of Argentina during the coming years will be defined crucially by the characteristics of the…

In 2021 and 2022, economic growth for Colombia will benefit from the improvement in the global dynamic and the internal recovery, despite of the negative impact of lockdowns and the fiscal reform. Inflation will gradually converge towards its t…

The COVID-19 pandemic hit Argentina's economy hard, which is in its third consecutive year of recession. With the second wave of contagion in sight, the government is negotiating a new program with the IMF that could be crucial for the country…

The Peruvian economy will grow around 10% in 2021, largely due to a “rebound effect”, but also supported by the favourable external environment and despite both regulatory and electoral uncertainty. In 2022, when the local vaccination process has been broadly deployed, an expansion of 4.5% is expected.

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The Colombian economy starts its recovery process from the second half of 2020. It will grow 4.8% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022 boosted by private consumption and investment. Inflation will gradually return to its target in 2021 and the Central Bank will hold rates at low levels during 2021.