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October 22, 2019

Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2019

We forecast a GDP expansion of 2,5% in 2019, similar to our August forecast. For 2020 we anticipate GDP will grow 3,1% thanks to the normalization of primary activities (mining) and a stronger push from public spending.
  • Geography Tags
  • Peru

July 19, 2019

Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2019

We maintain our GDP forecast fall of 1.2% in 2019, which will grow quarterly form 2Q-19 due to the recovery of agricultural campaign and the reduction of FX market tensions. By 2020, the economy will have processed the tensions caused by the electoral uncertainty and will grow by 2.5% as private domestic demand recovers.

July 18, 2019

Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2019

We estimate output growth for 1H19 around 2%YoY, accelerating to roughly 4% in 2H19. As a result, Peru’s GDP will grow 2,9% in 2019, one percentage point less than our previous estimate from three months ago. For 2020, we anticipate growth will approach 4%.
  • Geography Tags
  • Peru

May 31, 2019

Mexico | Trump’s Tariff Threat has the potential to be a game changer for Mexican Economy

Incremental tariffs (up to 25%) would likely push the Mexican economy into a recession; inflation risks, an overly hawkish Banxico and fiscal constraints would limit the room for countercyclical fiscal and/or monetary policies.

December 14, 2018

Mexico | Using international reserves – a bad idea for Mexico's economy

A few weeks ago, a group of legislators from Mexico's Labour Party (Partido del Trabajo, PT) said that Parliament should discuss the possibility of using the Central Bank's international reserves in the fight against poverty. I understand that this sounds like an attractive proposition.

November 13, 2018

Banxico to hike 25bp to 8.00% with higher uncertainty and risks

Our call is based on MPC’s hawkish forward guidance and the materialization of some risks, especially a weaker MXN. A lot has changed in the intermeeting period and in our view a hike is warranted. We are not expecting an additional hike in December for now, but will depend on the MXN performance which will most likely be d…

November 9, 2018

Mexico | Trouble brewing on the fiscal front

The people working on the fiscal budget for next year - which has to be approved before 15 December - are presumably redoing the calculations using new assumptions for the main macroeconomic variables, the outlook for which has changed with the decision to cancel the Texcoco airport project.

October 19, 2018

Banco de México: the right decision

Last week saw the publication of the minutes of the Banxico Governing Board's latest monetary policy meeting. As we already knew, it was decided to leave the monetary policy rate unchanged at 7.75%, in a split vote in which four members voted in favour of no change and one voted to increase the rate by 25 bp. In my view, th…