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July 16, 2020

Colombia Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2020

Colombia started its recovery path after the strong second quarter shock due to the pandemic. This process will be slow and gradual and will be determined by sector openings approved by the national and local governments. GDP is expected to fall by 7.5% this year and to recover by 5.5% in 2021.

May 20, 2020

Uruguay Economic Outlook. First half 2020

Uruguay will be affected by the combination of an intense, but transitory, negative shock of external demand and a brake on domestic activity resulting from voluntary confinement arranged to avoid massive contagion. In this context, activity will contract by 3.1% in 2020.

January 23, 2020

Peru Economic Outlook. First quarter 2020

We expect output to grow by 3,1% in 2020, a forecast which is similar to the one we made in October, while in 2021 economic activity would grow by 3,5%. The main drivers will be the normalisation of primary activities (mining) and public spending, to which a stronger private spending will be added next year.
  • Geography Tags
  • Peru

October 23, 2019

Turkey Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2019

Turkey´s economic recovery is gaining momentum and will accelerate in the second half of the year. The “V” shape recovery is in line with our expectations, leading us to maintain our GDP forecast at 0.3% in 2019 with upside risks and 3% in 2020.

October 22, 2019

Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2019

We forecast a GDP expansion of 2,5% in 2019, similar to our August forecast. For 2020 we anticipate GDP will grow 3,1% thanks to the normalization of primary activities (mining) and a stronger push from public spending.
  • Geography Tags
  • Peru

July 19, 2019

Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2019

We maintain our GDP forecast fall of 1.2% in 2019, which will grow quarterly form 2Q-19 due to the recovery of agricultural campaign and the reduction of FX market tensions. By 2020, the economy will have processed the tensions caused by the electoral uncertainty and will grow by 2.5% as private domestic demand recovers.

July 18, 2019

Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2019

We estimate output growth for 1H19 around 2%YoY, accelerating to roughly 4% in 2H19. As a result, Peru’s GDP will grow 2,9% in 2019, one percentage point less than our previous estimate from three months ago. For 2020, we anticipate growth will approach 4%.
  • Geography Tags
  • Peru

May 31, 2019

Mexico | Trump’s Tariff Threat has the potential to be a game changer for Mexican Economy

Incremental tariffs (up to 25%) would likely push the Mexican economy into a recession; inflation risks, an overly hawkish Banxico and fiscal constraints would limit the room for countercyclical fiscal and/or monetary policies.