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Mexico's dependence on remittances reached a maximum of 4.0% of GDP in 2022. It is estimated that remittances would represent 3.5% of GDP in 2023 and by 2024 they will reach 3.7%. The appreciation of the Mexican peso (MXN) against the US dollar (USD) has relatively reduced Mexico's dependence on these resources.

Javier Milei will be the new president of Argentina. He takes office with the challenge of correcting strong imbalances in the fiscal, monetary and exchange rate fronts. The adjustment of spending and changes in relative prices will lead to an acceleration of inflation and further contraction of GDP in the short term.

The surprising outcome of the primary elections left an open end to the October voting and heightened uncertainty, increasing volatility and further worsening expectations for the coming year. We maintain our scenario of recession and high infl…

Despite these important flows, inflation and, mainly, the appreciation of the Mexican peso against the US dollar have led to households in Mexico receiving 12.6% fewer remittances in real terms in August.

Between July 2022 and July 2023, the Mexican peso (MXN) has appreciated 17.4% against the US dollar (USD), and inflation registered in Mexico was 4.8%. Thus, remittances in real terms have lost 16.0% of their purchasing power in one year.

Chiapas registers an annual growth in remittances of more than 50% and is already the fourth state with the highest income from these resources. San Cristobal de las Casas is already the municipality where most remittances are received in the country.

After the pandemic and the end of the construction of the third pulp mill, the Uruguayan economy faces a couple of years of moderate growth. However, in the long term, recent improvements in the sovereign risk rating reinforce the institutional quality and strength of the country's macroeconomic fundamentals.

Upward revision in our 2023 growth estimate to 2.4% (1.4% previously); the resilience of domestic demand drives growth this year. We anticipate a slowdown in 2H23 due to lower external demand, with a carry-over effect on 2024.

Despite the increase in remittances in dollars, households in Mexico received 9.7% fewer resources in real terms in April, explained by: 1) the appreciation of the peso against the US dollar of 9.8% between April 2022 and April 2023, and 2) an …

The MXN has reached 17.55 pesos per dollar, its lowest level since May 2016. This latest movement of appreciation was triggered by the publication of the inflation number for April in the United States, which reinforced the perception that the …

2023 is a year with a heavy electoral calendar, in a context of growing social concern regarding macroeconomic imbalances and a historic drought. We expect sustained pressures in the FX market throughout the year, with consequences on the GDP and financial volatility.

Economic activity is expected to grow 1,9% in 2023, six tenth of a percentage point less than our early-December forecast. This revision considers the social upheaval at the beginning of the year and higher political uncertainty, more than offsetting a milder global activity slowdown. A rebound of 3,0% is expected in 2024.