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July 21, 2022

Argentina Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2022

The deviations from the targets agreed with the IMF triggered a deterioration of expectations and the economic situation, deepened by political tensions. Economic activity will slow down more than expected in the coming quarters.

June 10, 2022

Mexico | Why is the peso "strong"?

At the time of writing this article, the exchange rate is 19.5 pesos per dollar; a remarkable level considering that just last November its value was 21.9 pesos per dollar (an appreciation of more than 10%).

April 8, 2022

Argentina Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2022

The government reached an enforceable agreement with the IMF, avoiding a default scenario. This is good news for Argentina, but its gradual approach does not change the overall macroeconomic scenario, nor does the absence of structural reforms create the conditions for a sustainable growth path.

April 7, 2022

Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2022

Taking into account a less favorable external scenario, we have revised downwards the growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, from 2.3% to 2.0% in the first case and from 3.0% to 2.8% in the second.

October 27, 2021

Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2021

We raised our GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 7.5%, but we do not expect a dynamic performance in the coming two years (average annual growth: 2%). The key question is whether that will be a result of the correction of imbalances or due to a postponement of them. An agreement with the IMF would shed light on this issue.

July 27, 2021

Argentina Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2021

We adjusted our 2021 economic growth forecast from 7% to 6.5%. This year will be notably marked by the midterm elections. The macroeconomic performance of Argentina during the coming years will be defined crucially by the characteristics of the agreement with the IMF, which would take place in 1Q22.

April 22, 2021

Colombia Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2021

In 2021 and 2022, economic growth for Colombia will benefit from the improvement in the global dynamic and the internal recovery, despite of the negative impact of lockdowns and the fiscal reform. Inflation will gradually converge towards its target, allowing the Central Bank to maintain an expansionary monetary policy.

January 25, 2021

Argentina Economic Outlook. First quarter 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic hit Argentina's economy hard, which is in its third consecutive year of recession. With the second wave of contagion in sight, the government is negotiating a new program with the IMF that could be crucial for the country's sustainable growth.