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The MXN has reached 17.55 pesos per dollar, its lowest level since May 2016. This latest movement of appreciation was triggered by the publication of the inflation number for April in the United States, which reinforced the perception that the cycle of increases of the Federal Reserve has finished.
2023 is a year with a heavy electoral calendar, in a context of growing social concern regarding macroeconomic imbalances and a historic drought. We expect sustained pressures in the FX market throughout the year, with consequences on the GDP and financial volatility.
Economic activity is expected to grow 1,9% in 2023, six tenth of a percentage point less than our early-December forecast. This revision considers the social upheaval at the beginning of the year and higher political uncertainty, more than offs…
Juana Téllez participated in the Presidents' Forum of the Bogota Chamber of Commerce. The presentation contains the recent performance of financial markets, growth results, macroeconomic perspectives and the main medium-term challenges of the C…
With a better than expected 2022, Argentina will face a complex 2023, with a drop in the level of activity and high inflation that will lead to a stagflation scenario. The main challenges will be the rollover of debt in the local market for cha…
The Current Account of the BoP includes the trade balance and the net dividend and interest payments abroad. A current account deficit implies that the country is a net debtor to the rest of the world. An econometric model is used to estimate the structural Current Account balance of Argentina and its long-term determinants
The deviations from the targets agreed with the IMF triggered a deterioration of expectations and the economic situation, deepened by political tensions. Economic activity will slow down more than expected in the coming quarters.
At the time of writing this article, the exchange rate is 19.5 pesos per dollar; a remarkable level considering that just last November its value was 21.9 pesos per dollar (an appreciation of more than 10%).
The government reached an enforceable agreement with the IMF, avoiding a default scenario. This is good news for Argentina, but its gradual approach does not change the overall macroeconomic scenario, nor does the absence of structural reforms …
Taking into account a less favorable external scenario, we have revised downwards the growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, from 2.3% to 2.0% in the first case and from 3.0% to 2.8% in the second.
We raised our GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 7.5%, but we do not expect a dynamic performance in the coming two years (average annual growth: 2%). The key question is whether that will be a result of the correction of imbalances or due to a postponement of them. An agreement with the IMF would shed light on this issue.
We adjusted our 2021 economic growth forecast from 7% to 6.5%. This year will be notably marked by the midterm elections. The macroeconomic performance of Argentina during the coming years will be defined crucially by the characteristics of the agreement with the IMF, which would take place in 1Q22.
