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In 2025, Navarre's GDP could grow by 2.4%, and this growth is expected to continue in 2026. Looking ahead, economic activity will be marked by high uncertainty surrounding economic and trade policy and the slow recovery in Europe.

Global trade is slowing after the initial rebound in early 2025. Still, volumes remain above 2024 levels. Mexico and several Asian economies stay dynamic, while China, Eurozone, and Canada show signs of moderation. Mexico continues to gain share in U.S. trade, driven by electronics despite declines in the automotive sector.

By the end of 2023, Mexico recorded a trade deficit of 5,463 million dollars ($5.46 bn). Manufacturing leads both exports and imports. Mexico solidified its position as the leading supplier in the US market while FDI dropped slightly in 2023.

BBVA Research forecasts a 1.9% growth in Navarre's GDP in 2023. Although the forward scenario deteriorates, the recovery may continue, with GDP expected to grow by 2.2% in 2024. 8,500 jobs could be created in the 2023-2024 biennium.

During the 2019-2022 period, sales of goods abroad have performed similarly to those seen in the rest of Europe (5.4% vs. 8.1% recorded in Europe), while it is exports of services that have shown the greatest increase (+33.9% in Spain vs. 10.1%).

The GDP of Castille-La Mancha increased by 4.8% in 2022. We expect an increase of 1.1% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2024, which will allow the creation of 31 thousand jobs between 2022 and 2024.

Navarre's GDP grew by 4.8% in 2021. But the war in Ukraine and sanctions reduce growth expectations. Thus, Navarre's GDP is expected to increase by 3.5% in 2022 and to slow down in 2023, when the increase will be 0.2%.