Spain | Analysis and Outlook of the EU-Mercosur Agreement

Summary

The EU-Mercosur agreement presents a favorable scenario for growth, investment, and trade. Spain maintains a strategic link that sits above the European average, driven by business investment and the supply of key inputs.

Key points

• Key points:
• Mercosur is the third global destination for the Spanish investment stock (12.9% of the total in 2024), with a high presence of multinationals. Brazil is the main commercial partner and recipient of Spanish investment in the region (more than 60% of the accumulated flow 2019-2025), with a business turnover that exceeds key Spanish markets such as France or Germany.
• In the trade of goods, Spain leads the export of capital goods and industrial inputs (chemicals, pharmaceuticals, electrical and mechanical appliances). In contrast, there is a dependence on Mercosur for the supply of critical raw materials, energy, and food, areas where the bloc manages to provide up to 40% of Spanish needs.
• In services, Spain shows an export specialization higher than the European average in insurance, transport, and ICT. Service multinationals are key, as they have the capacity to triple the base impact of the agreement on the national GDP.
• The consensus estimates a positive and sustained macroeconomic impact, with an estimated increase in the Spanish GDP of between 0.08% and 0.23% at the end of the 16-year implementation period. The pact projects a 40% rise in bilateral trade and savings of 4,000 million euros in tariffs for European companies.
• Heterogeneity in the Autonomous Communities: the Basque Country, Navarre, and Murcia lead the export of capital goods, while regions such as Andalusia, Murcia, and the Basque Country concentrate the relationship with the energy hubs. The tourist spending of Argentina and Brazil in Spain already represents 1.6% of the national total (2025), with a special relevance in the Community of Madrid (5.1%).

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