Publications

In June 2025, Mexico faced an effective average tariff of 8.28% on $44.9 billion in exports to the US—among the lowest globally. This reflects shifting trade flows and sector-specific tariff variations, positioning Mexico to benefit from renewed nearshoring momentum.

The trade surplus in 2Q25 is mainly due to the positive balance on non-oil-related goods, which in the second quarter of 2025 was USD 8,893 million after having posted a surplus of USD 4,730 million in the first quarter.

The current account surplus in the fourth quarter of 2024 was higher than the corresponding figure for the third quarter of 2024 mainly due to the surplus in the balance on non-oil related goods.

The current account surplus in the third quarter of 2024 was lower than the corresponding figure for the same period of 2023 mainly due to the deficit in the balance on non-oil related goods.

The balance on oil-related goods in the last three quarters has averaged USD -2,086 million vs. USD -5,534 million during January-September of 2023.

The trade balance reversed its behavior of the end of last year and posted a deficit in the first quarter of 2024. Given the stylized fact that the trade balance shows a countercyclical behavior, this deficit reflects that the Mexican economy reassumed its growth path at the beginning of the year.

We discuss important issues on the recent FDI drop: how serious is it? Is the ongoing FDI drop structural or cyclical? Should China need FDI as much as before? How should Chinese government lure the FDI back and guide them in high-end manufacturing?

In the first half of 2023, FDI accounted for 5.8% of GDP and financed more than the entire current account deficit. current account deficit. Increasing FDI flows, especially those other than reinvestment of profits, is a desirable objective in a context of energy transition.