Mexico | Trade & FDI Outlook 1H 2025

Summary

In June 2025, Mexico faced an effective average tariff of 8.28% on $44.9 billion in exports to the US—among the lowest globally. This reflects shifting trade flows and sector-specific tariff variations, positioning Mexico to benefit from renewed nearshoring momentum.

Key points

• Key points:
• Mexico's trade momentum remains strong, as evidenced by the June 2025 figures. During the 1H25, cumulative exports reached USD 313 billion (4.3% YoY growth) vs USD 311 billion in imports (0.2% YoY growth), yielding a USD 1.4 billion surplus.
• Manufacturing goods remained the backbone of Mexico’s foreign trade, accounting for nearly 90% of accumulated exports. Notably the agricultural and livestock industry reached a 3.9% share, positioning itself as the second most important export category, surpassing oil (2.0%) until this day.
• FDI inflows reached US$37.76 bn in 2024 revised figures (2.6% YoY growth) and by 1H25 reached US$34.3. bn and continue to grow 10.2% compared to 1H24 funnelling mainly into manufacturing (36% of 1H25 FDI) followed by Financial Services (26.7%) via clusters in Mexico City (56.4% of 1H25 FDI), Nuevo León (8.8%), State of Mexico (6.6%) and Querétaro (2.8%).
• The US leads FDI inflows with US$14.7 bn (42.9% of 1H25 FDI) followed by Spain (17.3%), Canada (5.1%) and Germany (3.7%); Asian nations account for a smaller share led by Japan (4.2%), South Korea (1.4%) and China (0.4%) during 1H25.
• Mexico may face a lower level of relative protectionism. A plausible scenario considers Mexican producers to deduct US content in car exports (Av. 18.3%) and de facto 0% tariff on autoparts that satisfy USMCA rules, reducing the average tariff to 12.0%. Moreover, if the Trump administration agrees to cut migration—and fentanyl-related tariffs to 12%, the average could fall to 7.5%. Recent US appeals court ruling on IEEPA tariffs, if definitive, could drop the average rate to 4.0%, US Supreme Court will define the final equilibrium.

Geographies

Topics

Tags