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Lagarde cooled expectations of another rate cut this year, reinforcing a more cautious, data-dependent stance. If the global outlook holds steady and no surprises arise in inflation or activity, the ECB may have already reached the end of its easing cycle.

The Board of the Banco de la República kept the policy rate unchanged at 9.5% in a split decision (4 to 3). The decision was based on inflationary and fiscal risks, as well as external uncertainty.

This Agenda presents the 2025 dissemination schedule for economic indicators and relevant monetary policy events in Mexico and the US; dates of important events such as the meetings of various relevant international entities such as: World Economic Forum, World Bank and the IMF

The Board of BanRep kept the policy rate unchanged at 9.5%. Notably, concerns persist regarding inflation, exchange rate volatility, and fiscal uncertainty.

The Board of Banrep reduced its monetary policy rate by 25 bps, bringing it to 9.50%. This decision was split: 5 members in favor of the 25 bp reduction, one in favor of a 50 bp reduction and one in favor of a 75 bp reduction. This is an important change in the Board's stance, after 6 meetings with rate cuts of 50bp.

The Board of Banrep reduced its monetary policy rate by 50 bps, bringing it to 9.75%. This decision was split, with 4 members in favor of the 50 bp reduction and three members voting for a larger reduction of 75 bp. The balance reached at the last meeting remain unchanged.

As expected, the ECB leaves its monetary policy unchanged and leaves the door open for a rate cut at the next meeting in September, awaiting for more data on wages, profit margins and productivity that confirm its inflation outlook.

This meeting further supports the expectation of an initial rate cut in June in line with our forecasts. The updated projections match our own. Nevertheless, the ECB needs to verify that core inflation, particularly from services and consequently wages, moderates as expected.