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As expected, the ECB leaves its monetary policy unchanged and leaves the door open for a rate cut at the next meeting in September, awaiting for more data on wages, profit margins and productivity that confirm its inflation outlook.
This meeting further supports the expectation of an initial rate cut in June in line with our forecasts. The updated projections match our own. Nevertheless, the ECB needs to verify that core inflation, particularly from services and consequently wages, moderates as expected.
This Agenda presents the 2024 dissemination schedule for economic indicators and relevant monetary policy events in Mexico and the US; dates of important events such as the meetings of various relevant international entities such as: World Econ…
When the central bank initiates a rate reduction cycle, all eyes are focused on commercial banks and how market rates adjust. So far, market rates have fallen significantly more than those of the BanRep.
All in all, today's ECB meeting did not provide much new information. As anticipated, no change in interest rates was decided. The focus was on the ECB's tone about the timing of initial rate cuts. The conveyed message was relatively dovish, wi…
Our forecast still leans towards a further rate hike in September (reaching a terminal rate of 4% for the deposit rate); however, recent data weaknesses and ECB communications before and during the meeting have increased the likelihood of a potential pause and the possibility of no further hikes.
June 23, 2023
Banxico kept a hawkish tone and reiterated that it is set to keep "rates on hold for a while extended time".
With this decision, Banxico ended the fastest ever rate-hiking cycle, acknowledged that a "disinflationary phase is underway" but stated that it will keep the policy rate “at its current level for an extended period”
The next move is not around the corner but will be a cut. Banxico might start to cut rates in 4Q. We think it should .
Overall, today’s meeting makes it clear that following the widely expected next rate hike in June (to 3.50%/4.00%, depo/refi rate), more rate increases are quite likely, although they will also depend on the nature of incoming activity data and…
Banxico raised the policy rate by 25 bp to 11.25%, acknowledged that inflation was slowing, revised down its short-term headline inflation forecasts, took a less hawkish tone and left the door wide open for a pause at the next meeting in May
Overall, today’s meeting does not point to any particular bias to our view that the ECB will hike rates by 50bp in March and 25bp more in May, to reach 3.75%, as a terminal rate. Market reaction was dovish, in line with yesterday's movements on US rates as central banks´ - Fed, BoE and ECB- are seen to be near the peak
